解开汇率波动、出口和外国直接投资之间的联系：来自印度经济的经验证据

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI:10.1177/09749101221108788

A. Jamal, G. Bhat

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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究的主要目的是审查汇率波动对灵活汇率期间外国直接投资流入和印度出口的影响。边界检验程序证实了出口、有条件汇率波动和无条件汇率波动之间存在单一（稳定）的长期关系。自回归分布滞后模型证实，印度卢比对美元的波动对印度出口和外国直接投资流入产生了显著（负面）影响。此外，从长远来看，贸易开放度和国内生产总值在解释出口和外国直接投资流入方面是积极和重要的。根据实证结果，印度应制定适当的宏观经济政策，以减少汇率波动，使出口导向的增长战略取得成功。此外，像印度这样的新兴和进步经济体应该在不影响贸易开放水平的情况下加强和精简其国内外汇市场。更准确地说，远期外汇市场的覆盖范围应该扩大，因为从长远来看，它们可以为汇率波动提供保护（对冲）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy

The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.