{"title":"解开汇率波动、出口和外国直接投资之间的联系:来自印度经济的经验证据","authors":"A. Jamal, G. Bhat","doi":"10.1177/09749101221108788","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy\",\"authors\":\"A. Jamal, G. Bhat\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/09749101221108788\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37512,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-07-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221108788\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Economics, Econometrics and Finance\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221108788","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy
The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.
期刊介绍:
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.