MAPPING APPLE TREES FUTURE LAND USE POTENTIAL AS A MEANS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN EAST-MEDITERRANEAN MOUNTAINS: MOUNT-LEBANON

Agricultural zonal migrations and altitudinal shifts of high chill requirements fruit trees such as apple trees is considered a way of adaptation to climate change in mountain agriculture. This study examines near and far future options (2050-2070) of this local adaptation method in four village clusters in Mount-Lebanon, involving the expansion of agricultural lands to suitable regions under different degrees of climate change scenarios of temperature increase and precipitations regime fluctuation. A Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping calculation model was established for agricultural land evaluation which aims to locate spaces where the agriculture development indicators such as soil type, slope, future temperatures, and future precipitations will be suitable for cultivation under different climate change scenarios and models. The model does not seek the exact delineation of plots as much as the location of areas with a trend of agricultural relevance in the next 30 to 50 years. This classification is a tool to help Mount-Lebanon farmers and apple growers in adapting locally to climate change by choosing the best future spots to migrate their crops to. Results showed that most lands in which agricultural development is viable, are already in use for apple production (mainly) in the 4 clusters, leaving small parcels of land with variable agro-potentials to be developed in the future under favorable climate conditions. The agriculture potential of plots of altitude exceeding 2000 meters is to be validated in the studied area, especially since the climatic and irrigation conditions of there can present serious challenges.