结合元胞自动机马尔可夫模型模拟热带盆地未来土地利用变化。

IF 3.1 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
M. Camara, N. Jamil, A. F. Abdullah, Rohasliney Hashim
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引用次数: 13

摘要

预测土地利用变化是确定土地资源及其潜力的最佳开发和管理的一个不可或缺的方面。这项研究使用了1997年、2006年和2015年的认证土地使用地图,并结合了分别从马来西亚农业部和测绘部获得的道路网络、水体和斜坡等辅助数据。采用元胞自动机马尔可夫模型对马来西亚雪兰莪河流域未来土地利用变化进行了预测。过渡概率矩阵采用1997-2006年、2006-2015年、1997-2015年期间的土地利用条件进行计算。该模型在模拟2015年实际土地利用图的总体能力方面表现良好,无信息Kappa和网格单元级位置Kappa的指标值分别为0.92%和0.97%,这表明该模型成功模拟2024年和2033年土地利用变化的可靠性。根据预期结果,未来20年,城市面积将增长更快(33%),导致森林面积下降,预计在此期间将失去8%的总空间。农业用地将增加到4%,而水体将略有变化,增加到1%,其他土地利用区域可能会成为蓄水池、表层土或新的绿地,萎缩30%。鉴于未来土地利用知识在解决环境质量不受控制的开发问题方面的重要性,这项研究对主要由天然林覆盖的流域的土地利用规划者来说可能很有价值。然而,这项研究表明,未来的研究应将地理空间技术与生物物理和社会经济因素相结合,以模拟土地利用趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin.
Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Surveying and Mapping in Malaysia, respectively. The prediction of future land use changes in the Selangor River basin in Malaysia was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model. The transition probability matrices were computed using the land use conditions of the periods 1997-2006, 2006-2015, 1997-2015. The performance of the model was very good in its overall ability to simulate the actual land use map of 2015, with the index values of 0.92% and 0.97%, respectively for Kappa for no information and Kappa for grid-cell level location which indicated the reliability of the model to successfully simulate land use changes in 2024 and 2033. Based on the expected results, the future urban area will grow faster (33%) over the next two decades, leading to a decline in forest area that is expected to lose 8% of its total space during these periods. Agricultural land will increase to 4%, while water bodies will change slightly increasing to 1%, and other areas of land use will likely become reservoirs of water, topsoil or new green spaces shrinking at 30%. Given the importance of knowledge of future land use in addressing the problems of uncontrolled development on environmental quality, this study could be valuable for land use planners of the river basin largely covered by natural forest. The study however, suggests future research to integrate geospatial techniques with biophysical and socio-economic factors in simulating land use trends.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
2.90%
发文量
11
审稿时长
8 weeks
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