IrpetDin。意大利和托斯卡纳地区的动态微观模拟模型

Q3 Social Sciences

International Journal of Microsimulation Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI:10.34196/ijm.00224

M. Maitino, L. Ravagli, N. Sciclone

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引用次数: 1

摘要

IrpetDin是一个动态微观模拟模型，由IRPET（托斯卡纳地区经济规划研究所）开发，用于研究人口的未来社会人口结构，并评估意大利和托斯卡纳社会保障计划的中长期影响。该模型基于欧盟统计局的收入和生活条件调查，对2009年至2050年进行了预测，分为几个模块：人口学、教育、劳工、收入和社会保障。IrpetDin甚至为托斯卡纳地区做出了现实的预测，并以细节为教育和劳动力建模。根据地区行政数据，意大利和托斯卡纳的概率和比率估计不同。从选择中学到辍学，从大学入学到毕业，教育生涯都是完全模拟的。劳动力供给是内生决定的，而劳动力需求是由IRPET的宏观模型驱动的。劳动力供需匹配是按活动部门和教育部门建模的，以估计数量和质量的不匹配。JEL分类：C1，C2 DOI:https://DOI。org/10。34196/ijm。00224

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IrpetDin. A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Italy and the Region of Tuscany

IrpetDin is a dynamic microsimulation model, developed by IRPET (Regional Institute for Economic Planning of Tuscany) to study the future sociodemographic structure of the population and to evaluate the effects of social security programmes in Italy and in Tuscany over the medium to longterm. The model, based on the Eurostat Survey on Income and Living Conditions, makes projections from 2009 to 2050 and it is organised in modules: demography, education, labour and income and social security. IrpetDin produces realistic projections even for the Region of Tuscany and models education and labour with details. Probabilities and rates are estimated differently for Italy and Tuscany, trough regional administrative data. Education careers are completely simulated, from the choice of secondary school to dropout, from university enrolment to graduation. Labour supply is endogenously determined while labour demand is driven from IRPET’s macro model. The matching of labour supply and demand is modelled by sector of activity and education, in order to estimate the quantitative and the qualitative mismatch. JEL classification: C1, C2 DOI: https:// doi. org/ 10. 34196/ ijm. 00224

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来源期刊

International Journal of Microsimulation Mathematics-Modeling and Simulation

CiteScore

0.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJM covers research in all aspects of microsimulation modelling. It publishes high quality contributions making use of microsimulation models to address specific research questions in all scientific areas, as well as methodological and technical issues. IJM concern: the description, validation, benchmarking and replication of microsimulation models; results coming from microsimulation models, in particular policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis; technical or methodological aspect of microsimulation modelling; reviews of models and results, as well as of technical or methodological issues.