Maarten Nauta , Declan Bolton , Matteo Crotta , Johanne Ellis-Iversen , Thomas Alter , Michaela Hempen , Winy Messens , Marianne Chemaly
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The reduction of caecal <em>Campylobacter</em> concentration as reported for selected feed additives and vaccines, was used to estimate the relative risk reduction expressed as the percentage decrease in human campylobacteriosis cases in the EU associated with consumption of broiler meat. The model outputs suggest that the effectiveness of these control options are less pronounced than previously indicated. For example, the median estimate for the relative risk reduction obtained through a 2 log<sub>10</sub> reduction in caecal concentrations was 39% (95% CI 9–73%), whereas previous estimates were between 76 and 98%. The main reason for this finding is that recent studies show lower values for the slope of the regression line; the impact of using newly published DR models and CPMs is smaller. Still, the uncertainty associated to the estimated effects is large, mainly due to uncertainty about the slope of the regression line. Additionally, data on the effectiveness of vaccination and the application of feed and water additives obtained under field conditions are scarce, but they are a prerequisite to assess the risk reduction that may be achieved by these control options when applied in practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An updated assessment of the effect of control options to reduce Campylobacter concentrations in broiler caeca on human health risk in the European Union\",\"authors\":\"Maarten Nauta , Declan Bolton , Matteo Crotta , Johanne Ellis-Iversen , Thomas Alter , Michaela Hempen , Winy Messens , Marianne Chemaly\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.mran.2021.100197\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) studies have suggested that control options to reduce the concentration of <em>Campylobacter</em> spp. in broiler chicken caeca may be highly effective at reducing the risk of human campylobacteriosis. 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引用次数: 3
摘要
定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)研究表明,降低肉鸡盲肠中弯曲杆菌的浓度的控制选择可能对降低人类弯曲杆菌病的风险非常有效。这些QMRA研究基于过去十年获得的科学证据进行了更新。采用线性回归方法,结合消费者期模型(CPM)和剂量-反应模型(DR),建立了工业加工后肉鸡内脏和皮肤弯曲杆菌浓度之间的关系模型。根据选定的饲料添加剂和疫苗所报告的盲肠弯曲杆菌浓度的降低,用于估计与食用肉鸡肉有关的欧盟人类弯曲杆菌病病例减少百分比所表示的相对风险降低。模型输出表明,这些控制办法的有效性不如以前指出的那么明显。例如,通过降低盲肠浓度2 log10获得的相对风险降低的中位数估计为39% (95% CI 9-73%),而之前的估计在76 - 98%之间。这一发现的主要原因是,最近的研究表明,回归线的斜率值较低;使用新发布的DR模型和cpm的影响较小。然而,与估计效果相关的不确定性很大,主要是由于回归线斜率的不确定性。此外,在实地条件下获得的关于疫苗接种有效性以及饲料和水添加剂应用的数据很少,但这些数据是评估这些控制方案在实际应用时可能实现的风险降低的先决条件。
An updated assessment of the effect of control options to reduce Campylobacter concentrations in broiler caeca on human health risk in the European Union
Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) studies have suggested that control options to reduce the concentration of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chicken caeca may be highly effective at reducing the risk of human campylobacteriosis. These QMRA studies have been updated based on scientific evidence obtained in the past decade. The relationship between Campylobacter concentrations in the caeca and on broiler skins after industrial processing was modelled by means of linear regression and combined with a number of consumer phase models (CPM) and dose-response (DR) models. The reduction of caecal Campylobacter concentration as reported for selected feed additives and vaccines, was used to estimate the relative risk reduction expressed as the percentage decrease in human campylobacteriosis cases in the EU associated with consumption of broiler meat. The model outputs suggest that the effectiveness of these control options are less pronounced than previously indicated. For example, the median estimate for the relative risk reduction obtained through a 2 log10 reduction in caecal concentrations was 39% (95% CI 9–73%), whereas previous estimates were between 76 and 98%. The main reason for this finding is that recent studies show lower values for the slope of the regression line; the impact of using newly published DR models and CPMs is smaller. Still, the uncertainty associated to the estimated effects is large, mainly due to uncertainty about the slope of the regression line. Additionally, data on the effectiveness of vaccination and the application of feed and water additives obtained under field conditions are scarce, but they are a prerequisite to assess the risk reduction that may be achieved by these control options when applied in practice.
期刊介绍:
The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.