疫情对印度尼西亚旅游需求的影响和影响

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS
M. A. Esquivias, Lilik Sugiharti, Hilda Rohmawati, N. Sethi
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文使用自回归综合移动平均模型(SARIMA)估计了新冠肺炎大流行对印度尼西亚旅游业的经济损失。此外,还采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)来估计1989年至2019年印尼六个最大入境旅游国的旅游需求。结果预测,从2020年1月到2021年3月,游客人数将减少近1665万,潜在损失190.7亿美元。人均收入、相对价格和替代价格显著影响海外游客对印尼旅游机会的需求。印尼的旅游业被认为是一种奢侈品,价格有竞争力。该国可以利用外国游客的高支付意愿、强大的收入弹性以及对中国游客的积极看法。周边国家的互补促销政策有助于吸引更多的中国游客。来自印度的入境旅游可能会受到新冠肺炎的最大负面影响,这是由于收入弹性大、价格弹性负,以及在价格变化的情况下目的地可能被替代。来自新加坡和澳大利亚的游客可能很快就会重游,因为他们认为印尼是一个廉价的目的地。日本可能会重新考虑,这取决于印尼的旅游价格是否保持竞争力。政策制定者可能会调查非价格政策,因为以价格为导向的政策不会很有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impacts and implications of a pandemic on tourism demand in Indonesia
. This paper estimates the economic losses in Indonesia's tourism sector due to the COVID-19 pandemic using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA). Additionally, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is employed to estimate the demand for tourism in Indonesia from the six largest inbound tourist countries, from 1989 to 2019. The results predict a decrease of nearly 16.65 million tourists and a potential loss of US$19.07 billion from January 2020-March 2021. Income per capita, relative prices, and substitution prices significantly impact the demand from overseas travelers for tourism opportunities in Indonesia. Tourism in Indonesia is considered as a luxury with a competitive price. The country could capitalize on the high willingness to pay of foreign tourists, strong income elasticity, and a positive perception of Chinese tourists. Complementary promotion policies from neighboring countries could help to attract more Chinese visitors. Inbound tourism from India may experience the largest negative impact from COVID-19 due to the large income elasticity, negative price elasticity, and a possible substitution in destinations amid changes in prices. Tourists from Singapore and Australia may soon revisit as they see Indonesia as an inexpensive destination. Japan may revisit depending on whether tourism prices in Indonesia remain competitive or not. Policy makers may investigate non-price policies as price-oriented ones will not be very effective.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
6.70%
发文量
40
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: Economics and Sociology (ISSN 2306-3459 Online, ISSN 2071-789X Print) is a quarterly international academic open access journal published by Centre of Sociological Research in co-operation with University of Szczecin (Poland), Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania), Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations, (Slovak Republic) and University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic). The general topical framework of our publication include (but is not limited to): advancing socio-economic analysis of societies and economies, institutions and organizations, social groups, networks and relationships.[...] We welcome articles written by professional scholars and practitioners in: economic studies and philosophy of economics, political sciences and political economy, research in history of economics and sociological phenomena, sociology and gender studies, economic and social issues of education, socio-economic and institutional issues in environmental management, business administration and management of SMEs, state governance and socio-economic implications, economic and sociological development of the NGO sector, cultural sociology, urban and rural sociology and demography, migration studies, international issues in business risk and state security, economics of welfare.
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