Carnivore occupancy within the early successional habitat of New England cottontails

Predation pressure from carnivores can shape ecological communities and have significant consequences for prey species that are declining or recovering from historical declines. New England cottontails Sylvilagus transitionalis are a species of Greatest Conservation Need in Connecticut (USA) and are experiencing continued declines associated with habitat loss. Restoration of early successional habitat is underway to address the most significant threat to their populations. However, one of the largest documented sources of mortality is associated with several key predators and remains a threat to recovery efforts. Our objectives were to develop species-specific occupancy estimates of carnivores in early successional habitat and relate our findings to the potential recovery of New England cottontails. We conducted camera surveys at 34 sites in early successional habitat in or near New England cottontail Focus Areas throughout Connecticut and used the program MARK to estimate occupancy and detectability from detection data. Key predators were found in early successional habitat, but their detectability was generally low. Occupancy was highest for coyotes Canis latrans and regional occupancy differed only for bobcats Lynx rufus. Covariates that influenced parameter estimates in our models included high road densities and the intensity of cottontail Sylvilagus detections. Expanding carnivores, particularly coyote and bobcat, may place additional pressure on New England cottontail recovery in the state, but restoration efforts that promote contiguous habitat and reduce isolated patches, where predation risk is higher, will improve their chances of a long-term recovery.