School leaders’ self-efficacy and job satisfaction over nine annual waves: A substantive-methodological synergy juxtaposing competing models of directional ordering

The school principal’s job is increasingly demanding and complex, but school principal well-being is understudied. Self-efficacy and job satisfaction are critical constructs for studying school principals’ well-being, and self-efficacy is a core predictor of job satisfaction. Cross-sectional research typically assumes a unidirectional ordering; self-efficacy predicts (and leads to) job satisfaction, not the reverse. However, this unidirectional ordering is inconsistent with theoretical models positing a bidirectional (reciprocal) ordering. Furthermore, the assumption is largely untested with appropriate longitudinal data and statistical models. We evaluated the directional ordering of job satisfaction and self-efficacy for a large (N = 5663), nationally representative, longitudinal (nine annual waves) sample of Australian school leaders. Job satisfaction and self-efficacy were moderately correlated within waves and over time. Consistently with theoretical models and a priori predictions, the two constructs were reciprocally related over time; prior measures of each had small statistically positive effects on subsequent measures of the other, with no evidence of directional predominance of one over the other. Support for reciprocal effects was remarkably consistent across competing cross-lag-panel models, multiple tests of the consistency of effects over time (measurement invariance and stationarity), control for covariates, and the addition of lag-2 paths. Methodologically, we critique competing models that estimate cross-lagged effects and evaluate directional ordering from within- and between-person perspectives. We demonstrate the value of both approaches in achieving a robust framework for assessing longitudinal panel models.. Our substantive-methodological synergy has important substantive implications for theory, policy, and practice—showing that school-leader job satisfaction and self-efficacy are mutually reinforcing.