新冠肺炎旅游需求区间预测：一个具有改进多目标优化算法的混合模型

IF 4.4 3区管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research Pub Date : 2023-01-13 DOI:10.1177/10963480221142873

Jianzhou Wang, Lifang Zhang, Zhenkun Liu, Xiaojia Huang

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引用次数: 2

摘要

提出了一种混合旅游需求区间预测系统，该系统由两部分组成：基于上下限估计的预测区间构建和基于优化折减系数的预测区间调整。冠状病毒因素被添加为输入变量，以提高预测性能。提出了一种新的多目标优化算法来构造特征选择方法，优化预测模型，并估计最优约简系数。实验结果表明，该系统具有强大的区间预测能力，为新冠肺炎疫情期间旅游业的复苏和控制疫情蔓延提供了重要指导，并有助于旅游从业人员和管理人员的应急规划。

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Tourism Demand Interval Forecasting Amid COVID-19: A Hybrid Model With a Modified Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithm

A hybrid tourism demand interval forecasting system is proposed consisting of two parts: the construction of forecasting interval based on lower and upper bound estimates, and the forecasting interval adjustment based on an optimized reduction coefficient. Coronavirus factors are added as input variables to improve forecasting performance. A new multi-objective optimization algorithm is proposed to construct a feature selection method, optimize the forecasting model, and estimate the optimal reduction coefficient. The results of the experiments show that the proposed system has a powerful interval forecasting ability, which provides crucial guidance for balancing the recovery of the tourism industry and the control of the epidemic spread during the COVID-19 pandemic, and contributes to contingency planning for tourism practitioners and managers.

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来源期刊

Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM-

CiteScore

10.10

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research (JHTR) is an international scholarly research journal that publishes high-quality, refereed articles that advance the knowledge base of the hospitality and tourism field. JHTR focuses on original research, both conceptual and empirical, that clearly contributes to the theoretical development of our field. The word contribution is key. Simple applications of theories from other disciplines to a hospitality or tourism context are not encouraged unless the authors clearly state why this context significantly advances theory or knowledge. JHTR encourages research based on a variety of methods, qualitative and quantitative.