腐败与政治支持：以秘鲁瓦库纳门丑闻为例

IF 3.2 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Journal of Experimental Political Science Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI:10.1017/xps.2023.7

Oscar Castorena, Noam Lupu, Adam D. Wolsky, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister

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引用次数: 0

摘要

经典的舆论理论表明，负面冲击会破坏薄弱民主国家的制度支持，但很少有研究对这一论点进行系统评估。我们认为，秘鲁爆发的瓦库纳门丑闻是最有可能在腐败和政治支持之间找到联系的案例。这起丑闻在2021年美国晴雨表秘鲁调查中期意外曝光，为自然实验创造了条件。在调查设计中应用一个意外事件，我们考虑丑闻对腐败、制度支持和民主支持的影响。我们发现强有力的证据表明，这起丑闻甚至增加了人们对腐败的高度认知，降低了系统支持。与先前理论的预期相反，我们发现对明确支持民主没有任何影响。在结论中，我们讨论了丑闻可能影响民主稳定的微妙方式。

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Corruption and Political Support: The Case of Peru’s Vacuna-gate Scandal

Classic theories of public opinion suggest that negative shocks can undermine system support in weak democracies, but scant work has systematically assessed this thesis. We identify Peru’s explosive Vacuna-gate scandal as a most-likely case for finding a connection between corruption and political support. The scandal’s unexpected revelation in the middle of the 2021 AmericasBarometer Peru survey created conditions for a natural experiment. Applying an unexpected-event-during-survey design, we consider the consequences of the scandal for perceptions of corruption, system support, and support for democracy. We find robust evidence that the scandal increased even already high perceptions of corruption and lowered system support. Contrary to expectations derived from prior theories, we find no effect on explicit support for democracy. In the conclusion, we discuss the nuanced ways that scandal may shape democratic stability.

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来源期刊

Journal of Experimental Political Science Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Experimental Political Science (JEPS) features cutting-edge research that utilizes experimental methods or experimental reasoning based on naturally occurring data. We define experimental methods broadly: research featuring random (or quasi-random) assignment of subjects to different treatments in an effort to isolate causal relationships in the sphere of politics. JEPS embraces all of the different types of experiments carried out as part of political science research, including survey experiments, laboratory experiments, field experiments, lab experiments in the field, natural and neurological experiments. We invite authors to submit concise articles (around 4000 words or fewer) that immediately address the subject of the research. We do not require lengthy explanations regarding and justifications of the experimental method. Nor do we expect extensive literature reviews of pros and cons of the methodological approaches involved in the experiment unless the goal of the article is to explore these methodological issues. We expect readers to be familiar with experimental methods and therefore to not need pages of literature reviews to be convinced that experimental methods are a legitimate methodological approach. We will consider longer articles in rare, but appropriate cases, as in the following examples: when a new experimental method or approach is being introduced and discussed or when novel theoretical results are being evaluated through experimentation. Finally, we strongly encourage authors to submit manuscripts that showcase informative null findings or inconsistent results from well-designed, executed, and analyzed experiments.