基于出生率和预期寿命的莱斯利矩阵模型预测2021年丁加勒县女性人口增长

Dewi Anggreini
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本研究旨在根据出生率和预期寿命的数据确定2021年丁加勒县的女性居民人数。利用特征值和特征向量,利用Leslie矩阵模型确定划分年龄分布。特征向量用于确定每个年龄区间的女性种群数量,特征值用于确定种群增长率。所采用的研究方法是确定研究对象。接下来的阶段是收集研究数据,然后分析数据,最后得出结论。研究数据来自BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek和BPS东爪哇省,即2010-2015年妇女人口数据。本研究的结果是使用Leslie矩阵模型来研究丁加勒县的女性人口,即离散模型。离散模型根据出生率和预期寿命划分为14个年龄区间。研究结果表明,当正特征值大于1时,贞嘎勒摄政地区的女性种群数量有增加的趋势。也就是说,丁加勒摄政的女性人口增长率趋于正增长。莱斯利的矩阵模型的成功之处在于将案例研究应用于使用MAPLE 16计划预测2021年Trenggalek地区的女性人口数量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy
This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.
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