影响酒后驾驶事故的决定因素的周变化和时间不稳定性:一个随机阈值随机参数分层有序概率模型

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Xintong Yan , Jie He , Guanhe Wu , Changjian Zhang , Ziyang Liu , Chenwei Wang
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引用次数: 13

摘要

饮酒已被认为是车辆碰撞发生及其造成的伤害严重程度的一个关键决定因素。本文采用两组随机阈值随机参数分层有序概率模型,研究酒后驾驶事故中不同损伤严重程度影响因子的周可转移性和时间稳定性。结果变量分为无伤、轻伤和重伤三种,解释变量包括驾驶员特征、车辆特征、道路特征、环境特征、碰撞特征和时间特征。通过三组似然比检验检验了模型的周可转移性和时间稳定性。采用边际效应分析解释变量的周可转移性和时间稳定性。总体而言,研究结果显示出每周的变化和时间的不稳定性,而一些指标也被观察到相对每周的可转移性,包括超速、攻击性驾驶、行驶、摩托车、时速限制在45 - 55英里/小时之间、弯道、车道、翻车、撞固定物体、车辆年龄(5-9岁)。此外,工作日模型中的曲线和乘用车指标具有相对的时间稳定性。本文可以为预防酒后驾驶碰撞提供见解,并可能促进相应碰撞伤害缓解政策的制定。将先进的数据驱动方法整合到统计模型中,实现推理和预测的同时进行更多的研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Weekly variations and temporal instability of determinants influencing alcohol-impaired driving crashes: A random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered probit model

Alcohol consumption has been acknowledged as a critical determinant concerning the occurrence of vehicle crashes and their resulting injury severities. To investigate the weekly transferability and temporal stability of the contributors determining different injury severity levels in alcohol-impaired driving crashes, this paper employs two groups of random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered probit models. Three injury-severity categories are determined as outcome variables: no injury, minor injury and severe injury, while multiple factors are investigated as explanatory variables including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway characteristics, environmental characteristics, crash characteristics and temporal characteristics. The weekly transferability and temporal stability of the models are examined through three groups of likelihood ratio tests. Marginal effects are also adopted to analyze the weekly transferability and temporal stability of the explanatory variables. Overall, the findings exhibit weekly variations and temporal instability while some indicators are also observed to be of relative weekly transferability including speeding, aggressive driving, proceeding, motorcycle, speed limit between 45 and 55 mph, curve, driveway, overturned, hit-fixed-object, vehicle age (5–9 years old). Besides, curve and passenger car indicators in weekday models present relative temporal stability. This paper can provide insights into preventing alcohol-impaired driving crashes and can potentially facilitate the development of the corresponding crash injury mitigation policies. More studies could be conducted integrating the advanced data-driven methods into the statistical models to simultaneously achieve inference and prediction.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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