政治和股票市场:来自加拿大的证据

IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Robert N. Killins , Thanh Ngo , Hongxia Wang
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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们研究了1985年至2019年加拿大和美国的政治权力、两极分化和经济政策不确定性(EPU)如何影响加拿大股市。我们几乎没有证据表明,自由政府的回报溢价和相应的风险对整个市场和许多行业部门都是如此。只有信息技术(IT)行业见证了选举周期的“下半场效应”。在美国民主党强势执政期间,加拿大股市的表现似乎更胜一筹,个别行业的表现好坏参半。两国的政治两极分化和贸易不确定性对加拿大股票回报的影响不大,除了来自美国两极分化的风险投资、小盘股和IT行业。美国EPU指数影响整个加拿大股票市场以及能源、工业、零售和运输行业的平均回报,而加拿大国内EPU则降低了整个股票市场、小盘股和风险公司的回报。两国政治意识形态的一致性对加拿大股市影响不大。总体而言,研究结果表明,政治环境对加拿大股票市场的影响往往是有限的、动态的和行业特异性的,这表明投资者不应盲目地将其投资组合与政治观点或从属关系混合在一起。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Politics and equity markets: Evidence from Canada

We examine how political power, polarization, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Canada and the US affect the Canadian equity market from 1985 to 2019. We document little evidence of significant liberal government return premiums and the corresponding risk for the overall market and many industry sectors. Only the IT sector witnesses the “second half effect” of election cycles. The Canadian equity market seems to outperform during strong Democratic control in the US, with mixed findings for the individual sectors. Political polarization in the two countries and trade uncertainty have little impact on Canadian equity returns except for the venture, small-cap, and IT sectors from the US polarization. The US EPU index affects the average returns of the overall Canadian equity market and the energy, industrials, retail, and transportation industries, while domestic EPU in Canada reduces the overall equity market, small-cap, and venture firm returns. The alignment of political ideology in the two countries has little impact on the equity market in Canada. Collectively, the results show that the impact of political environments on the Canadian equity market tends to be limited, dynamic, and industry-specific, suggesting that investors should not blindly mix their portfolios with their political views or affiliations.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
4.80%
发文量
25
审稿时长
30 days
期刊介绍: International trade, financing and investments have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years, and the operations of corporations have become increasingly multinationalized. Corporate executives buying and selling goods and services, and making financing and investment decisions across national boundaries, have developed policies and procedures for managing cash flows denominated in foreign currencies. These policies and procedures, and the related managerial actions of executives, change as new relevant information becomes available. The purpose of the Journal of Multinational Financial Management is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the management of the multinational enterprise. Theoretical, conceptual, and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • Foreign exchange risk management • International capital budgeting • Forecasting exchange rates • Foreign direct investment • Hedging strategies • Cost of capital • Managing transaction exposure • Political risk assessment • International working capital management • International financial planning • International tax management • International diversification • Transfer pricing strategies • International liability management • International mergers.
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