Contextual vulnerability of the communal forests and population of Totonicapán, Guatemala

The risk of climate change impacts occurring is a function of a socioecological system’s exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Vulnerability itself is the result of a system's sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The potential climate change driven biophysical impacts on the municipality Totonicapan in the western highlands of Guatemala are well documented in outcome vulnerability studies and projected to be severe. They include droughts, frosts, forest fires and life zone changes which also represent important hazards to the municipality’s population. Yet, recent detailed socioeconomic information on the municipality’s contextual vulnerability is scarce. Moreover, social capital which is central to the yet successful management of the unique communal coniferous forests is poorly understood. The present study evaluates the contextual vulnerability of the municipality's population and communal forests using 5 interviews and 167 household surveys from 3 communities for 15 socioeconomic indicators. Qualitative analysis of the interviews urges for further investigation into the link between emigration to the USA, the loss of social capital and communal forest management. Quantitative analysis of the indicators and their aggregation into a vulnerability index by Principal Component Analysis demonstrates that education is the most important vulnerability factor, followed by income which was negatively related to natural resource dependency. An overarching theme was gender inequality. The study is a plea for location and population specific research and adaptation strategies as it identifies significant differences even between communities of the same municipality.