重新实施欧盟财政规则的宏观经济影响:恢复原状还是转向支出规则?

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

National Institute Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI:10.1017/nie.2023.16

Christoph Paetz, Sebastian Watzka

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在欧盟委员会《稳定与增长公约》改革计划的背景下，本文使用NiGEM来模拟2024年重新适用财政规则的宏观经济影响。除了回到未修改的规则之外，最突出的选择包括支出规则。我们的研究结果表明，重新应用未修改的规则会导致公共支出的大幅削减。然而，支出规则不一定能减轻财政调整负担。相反，我们的模拟表明，必须非常小心地指定支出规则，以便以有利于增长的方式实现财政整合。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RE-APPLYING THE EU FISCAL RULES: RETURNING TO THE STATUS QUO ANTE OR MOVING TO EXPENDITURE RULES?

Against the background of the European Commission’s reform plans of the Stability and Growth Pact, this paper uses NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of re-applying the fiscal rules in 2024. Next to returning to the unreformed rules, the most prominent options include an expenditure rule. Our results indicate that re-applying the unreformed rules leads to severe cuts in public spending. An expenditure rule would, however, not necessarily alleviate the fiscal adjustment burden. Instead, our simulations show that great care must be taken to specify the expenditure rule, such that fiscal consolidation is achieved in a growth-friendly way.

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来源期刊

National Institute Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The National Institute Economic Review is the quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, one of Britain"s oldest and most prestigious independent research organisations. The Institutes objective is to promote, through quantitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect peoples" lives so that they may be improved. It has no political affiliation, and receives no core funding from government. Its research programme is organised under the headings of Economic Modelling and Analysis; Productivity; Education and Training and the International Economy.