Collapse, affluence, and collapse again: contrasting climatic effects in Egypt during the prolonged reign of al-Mustanṣir (1036–1094)

The article examines the rapid and frequent transitions between periods of affluence and periods of real famine that occurred during the long reign of the Egyptian ruler al-Mustanṣir (1036–1094), as well as the correlation between these transitions and the fluctuations in the annual rise in the Nile flow which determine the availability of grain and food prices. The authors conclude that: (1) The transitions between affluence and dearth occurred under the same competent administration, and under the rule of the same Caliph. Therefore, the administration was not the only reason for these transitions; (2) The ruler (al-Mustanṣir) attempted, nevertheless, to identify affluence with himself and his reign and was blamed for the periods of scarcity; (3) Well-dated historical sources are the only way to follow the climatic and societal occurrences in a yearly resolution. No proxy data are sensitive enough to detect such changes and to reconstruct the historical and social processes that followed the climatic anomalies; and (4) Two or three years of insufficient rises of the Nile were sufficient to decrease the availability of food, reflected in price rises, food riots, and even famine. Two or three decades of stability were enough to enable the accumulation of wealth.