A comparison of ultrasonic temperature monitoring using machine learning and physics-based methods for high-cycle thermal fatigue monitoring

Failure of pipe network components in so-called mixing zones due to high-cycle thermal fatigue (HCTF) can occur within nuclear power plants where fluids of different thermal and hydraulic properties interact. Given that the consequences of such failures are potentially deadly, a method to monitor HCTF non-invasively in real-time is expected to be of great use. This method may be realised by a technique to determine the inaccessible temperature distribution of a component since thermal gradients drive HCTF. Previous work showed that a physics-based method called the inverse thermal modelling (ITM) method can obtain the temperature distribution from external temperature and ultrasonic time of flight (TOF) measurements. This study investigated whether the long-short-term memory (LSTM) machine learning architecture could be a faster alternative to the ITM method for data inversion. On experimental data, a 25-member ensemble of LSTM networks achieved an ensemble median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.04°C and an ensemble median mean error of 0.194°C (both relative to a resistance temperature device measurement). These values are similar to the ITM method which achieved a RMSE of 1.04°C and a mean error of 0.196°C. The single LSTM network and the ITM method achieved a computation-to-real-world time ratio of 0.008% and 14%, respectively demonstrating that both methods can invert data in real-time. Simulation studies revealed that LSTM performance is sensitive to small differences between the training and real-world parameters leading to unacceptable errors. However, these errors can be detected via an ensemble of independent networks and, corrected by simply adding a correction factor to the TOF prior to being input into the networks. The results show that LSTM has the potential to be an alternative to the ITM method; however, the authors favour ITM for temperature distribution monitoring given its interpretability.