社会政治不稳定预测的全球系统及其效率

IF 0.6 Q4 SOCIOLOGY

COMPARATIVE SOCIOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-03-07 DOI:10.1163/15691330-bja10050

Andrey Korotayev, I. Medvedev, J. Zinkina

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对社会政治不稳定预测系统进行了比较。它通过将他们对特定年份的预测与各自年份的实际不稳定水平相关联，系统地比较了他们的效率。事实证明，这些系统的预测能力在2011年后急剧下降。事实证明，这与2011年的阿拉伯之春触发了全球阶段的转变有关，导致世界系统向一个质的新阶段转变，出现了在其开始之前开发的预测系统没有考虑到的新模式。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Global Systems for Sociopolitical Instability Forecasting and Their Efficiency

This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global phase transition, resulting in the World System making a transition to a qualitatively new phase, with the emergence of new patterns that are not taken into account by forecasting systems developed before its beginning.

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来源期刊

COMPARATIVE SOCIOLOGY SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Comparative Sociology is a quarterly international scholarly journal dedicated to advancing comparative sociological analyses of societies and cultures, institutions and organizations, groups and collectivities, networks and interactions. All submissions for articles are peer-reviewed double-blind. The journal publishes book reviews and theoretical presentations, conceptual analyses and empirical findings at all levels of comparative sociological analysis, from global and cultural to ethnographic and interactionist. Submissions are welcome not only from sociologists but also political scientists, legal scholars, economists, anthropologists and others.