近年来北太平洋西部热带气旋强度估算的机构间差异

IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Lina Bai, Yinglong Xu, Jie Tang, Rong Guo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究调查了联合台风警报中心(JTWC)、中国气象局(CMA)和东京区域专业气象中心(RSMC)在2013年至2019年期间提供的北太平洋西部热带气旋(TC)强度最佳路径估计之间的机构间差异。结果表明,最大风速(MSW)估计值存在明显差异,其中线性系统差异显著。然而,从三个机构报告的MSW得出的德沃夏克参数(CI)数字在内部是一致的。进一步的分析表明,剩余的CI差异与这些数据集之间强度趋势、初始强度和TC位置估计的差异有关。此外,JTWC为公海上的TC提供的CI估计值通常高于CMA和RSMC报告的值。然而,CMA和RSMC的估计倾向于分别给出中国大陆和日本沿海地区TC的TC强度高于JTWC数据集中具有相同强度的公海TC强度。这种模式可能反映了这两个机构对登陆和近海TC的广泛使用。这些结果可能有助于研究界从不同机构的最佳跟踪数据集中获得关于WNP中TC的更准确的细节。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Interagency discrepancies in tropical cyclone intensity estimates over the western North Pacific in recent years

Interagency discrepancies in tropical cyclone intensity estimates over the western North Pacific in recent years

This study investigates interagency discrepancies among best-track estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in the western North Pacific, provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo during 2013 to 2019. The results reveal evident differences in maximum wind speed (MSW) estimates, where linear systematic differences are significant. However, the Dvorak parameter (CI) numbers derived from the MSWs reported by the three agencies are internally consistent. Further analysis suggests that the remained CI discrepancies are related to differences in the estimation of intensity trends, initial intensities, and TC positions among these datasets. In addition, the CI estimates provided by the JTWC for TCs over the open ocean are generally higher than those reported by the CMA and RSMC. However, the estimates from CMA and RSMC tend to give higher TC intensities for the TCs in the mainland and coastal areas of China and Japan, respectively, than those over the open ocean with the same intensity in JTWC dataset. This pattern potentially reflects the extensive use of surface observations by these two agencies for landfalling and offshore TCs. These results may help the research community to get more accurate details about the TCs in WNP from the best track datasets of different agencies.

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来源期刊
Atmospheric Science Letters
Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.30%
发文量
73
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
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