实际汇率对东欧国家价格竞争力的影响

N. Proskurnina, Jürgen Kähler, Rosario Cervantes-Martínez
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摘要

本文的主题是对东欧国家汇率研究的实证研究,如阿尔巴尼亚、保加利亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、白俄罗斯、捷克共和国、爱沙尼亚、克罗地亚、匈牙利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、摩尔多瓦、(北)马其顿、黑山、波兰、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚,以验证解释这些变化的理论的有效性。本研究旨在解释巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在乌克兰的混合证据,考虑到乌克兰成为欧盟成员的意图。与以前的工作不同,注意力转移到对经验证据的回顾和对限制验证理论能力的主要因素的识别上。主要结论是,所有被研究的货币在研究期间都经历了实质性的升值。因此,可以得出的结论是,考虑到当地外汇市场的可持续性不足,而且外汇业务的波动性高于发达国家,所研究国家的适当货币政策是非常重要的。然而,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假设(BSH)可以解释实际汇率的影响,由于在转型国家的生产力变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impact of real exchange rates on price competitiveness in Eastern European countries
The subject of this paper is empirical research on studies of exchange rates in Eastern European countries, such as Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, (North) Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia, in order verify the validity of theories that explain these changes. This research aims to explain the mixed evidence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Ukraine, taking into account the intentions of Ukraine to become a member of the European Union. Unlike previous works, the attention is shifted to a review of empirical evidence and the identification of main factors that limit the ability to verify the theory. The main conclusion is that all the currencies studied underwent substantial real appreciations during the study period. Thus, it can be concluded that an adequate monetary policy in countries under study is very important, given that local exchange markets are not sustainable enough and the volatility of exchange operations is higher than in countries with developed economies. However, the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) can explain the impact of the real exchange rate due to changes in productivity in countries in transition.
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