新冠肺炎的老龄化数学模型。

IF 2 4区医学 Q4 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY

Journal of Medical Biochemistry Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI:10.5937/jomb0-39602

Olivera Jovanikić, G Stevanović, Boban Đorđevic, Milan Jovanović, Milan Lepić

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：目的是检测新冠肺炎感染颈动脉内膜中膜厚度。方法：对50例颈总动脉内膜复合体（IMT）厚度进行测量。这些数值在2006-9年与对照组进行了比较。通过超声评分（It评分）（0-42）将肺部状况评估为轻度（0-14）或中度（15-28）新冠肺炎。记录IMT增厚的危险因素以及纤维蛋白原、IL-6和CRP的值。形成了两个IMT预测模型。社会流行病学模型根据流行病学因素预测IMT的发展。除了这些因素之外，第二个模型还包括上述生物标志物的值。结果：其得分为20±6，IMT值正确：中位数0.99mm，p25=0.89，p75=1.14；左侧：1±0.22 mm。对照组：IMT右侧：中值0.7 mm，p25=0.68 mm；p75＝0-9毫米；左：中位数=0.75 mm，p25=0.6 mm，p75=1.0 mm。组/对照组差异非常显著。流行病学模型：logit（IMT）=4.463+（GEN值2.021+）+（AGE值0.055x）+（RF值-3.419x）+（SM值-4.447x）+。流行病学炎症模型：logit（IMT）=5.204+（2.545x GEN值）+（0.076x AGE值）+。两个模型的值Exp（B）=4.882；样本的P=0.83；logit=-0.19；或=23.84；第一个模型的模型准确度为87%，第二个模型的准确度为88%；第一个模型的综合测试c2=34.324；p=0.000；可靠性系数-2LogLH=56.854；第二个模型的综合测试c2=39.774；p=0.000；和-2LogLH=51.403。结论：新冠肺炎的血管老化是可以预测的。

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Mathematical model of aging in COVID-19.

Background: The aim was examination of the intimamedia thickness of carotid arteries in COVID-19 infection.

Methods: In 50 patients, the thickness of the intimomedial complex (IMT) in the common carotid arteries was measured. The values were compared with the control group in 2006-9. The condition of the lungs was assessed by ultrasound score (It score) (0-42) as mild (0-14) or mediumsevere (15-28) Covid. IMT thickening risk factors and the value of fibrinogen, IL-6 and CRP were recorded. Two IMT prediction models were formed. The socio-epidemiological model predicts the development of IMT based on epidemiological factors. Apart from these factors, the second model also includes the values of the mentioned biomarkers.

Results: It score 20±6, IMT values right: median 0.99 mm, p25=0.89, p75=1.14; left: 1±0.22 mm. Control: IMTright: median 0.7 mm, p25=0.68 mm; p75=0-9 mm; left: median=0.75 mm, p25=0.6 mm, p75=1.0 mm. The group/control difference is highly significant. Epide mio - logical model: logit (IMT)= 4.463+(2.021+value for GEN)+(0.055x AGE value)+(-3.419x RF value)+(-4.447x SM value)+(5.115x HTA value)+(3.56x DM value)+ (22.389x LIP value)+(24.206x CVD value)+(1.449x other value)+(-0.138x It score value)+(0.19xBMI value). Epidemiological-inflammatory model: logit (IMT)=5.204+ (2.545x GEN value)+(0.076x AGE value)+(-6.132x RF value)+(-7.583x SM value)+(8.744x HTA value)+(6.838x DM value)+(25.446x LIP value)+(28.825x CVD value)+ (2.487x other value)+(-0.218xIt score value)+(0.649x BMI value) +(-0.194x fibrinogen value)+(0.894x IL-6 value)+(0.659x CRP value). Values for both models Exp(B)=4.882; P of sample=0.83; logit=-0.19; OR= 23.84; model accuracy for the first model 87% and for the second 88%; Omnibus test of the first model c2=34.324; p=0.000; reliability coefficient -2LogLH=56.854; Omnibus test of the second model c2=39.774; p=0.000; and -2LogLH=51.403.

Conclusions: The ageing of blood vessels in COVID-19 can be predicted.

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来源期刊

Journal of Medical Biochemistry BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.00

自引率

12.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The JOURNAL OF MEDICAL BIOCHEMISTRY (J MED BIOCHEM) is the official journal of the Society of Medical Biochemists of Serbia with international peer-review. Papers are independently reviewed by at least two reviewers selected by the Editors as Blind Peer Reviews. The Journal of Medical Biochemistry is published quarterly. The Journal publishes original scientific and specialized articles on all aspects of clinical and medical biochemistry, molecular medicine, clinical hematology and coagulation, clinical immunology and autoimmunity, clinical microbiology, virology, clinical genomics and molecular biology, genetic epidemiology, drug measurement, evaluation of diagnostic markers, new reagents and laboratory equipment, reference materials and methods, reference values, laboratory organization, automation, quality control, clinical metrology, all related scientific disciplines where chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology and immunochemistry deal with the study of normal and pathologic processes in human beings.