Ziyang Yu, Zhenzhen Li, Haoxuan Yang, Yihao Wang, Yang Cui, Guoping Lei, Shuai Ye
{"title":"东北地区农田时空格局对气候变化的响应对比","authors":"Ziyang Yu, Zhenzhen Li, Haoxuan Yang, Yihao Wang, Yang Cui, Guoping Lei, Shuai Ye","doi":"10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the relationship between climate change and cropland spatiotemporal patterns is critical for developing government policy and assisting agriculture in adapting to future climate change. The land use dataset was used to extract the area of cropland expansion and contraction as well as to calculate the cropland landscape indices. The impacts of climatic factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of cropland were quantified for different time periods by Random Forest (RF) classification and regression models, and the accuracy of the models was used as the intensity of the influence of climatic factors on cropland change. The results revealed that the total cropland area has consistently increased by 17.74% in the last four decades. The Sanjiang Plain (SJP) and Songnen Plain (SNP), with high aggregation and a simple shape of cropland landscapes, were the main regions where the cropland area has increased. Cropland landscape aggregation was low in mountainous areas. Before 2000, the total cropland area expanded more (46,748 km<sup>2</sup>) in response to the pressure to ensure food security, whereas there was less cropland loss. The accuracy of the RF model during this period revealed that the changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns were highly influenced by climatic factors. After 2000, the climate conditions gradually became warmer and wetter. The total area of cropland increased slightly (10,587 km<sup>2</sup>) under the influence of the contradictory relationships among economic development, food production and ecological conservation, and the conversion between cropland and natural landscape types was drastic. The impact of climatic factors on changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns has declined. Our results suggest that the response of spatiotemporal pattern changes in cropland to climatic factors differs under different policy contexts in different periods. The findings are intended to aid in the balance of agricultural production and ecological conservation in Northeast China in the face of climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":567,"journal":{"name":"Food Security","volume":"15 5","pages":"1197 - 1214"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Contrasting responses of spatiotemporal patterns of cropland to climate change in Northeast China\",\"authors\":\"Ziyang Yu, Zhenzhen Li, Haoxuan Yang, Yihao Wang, Yang Cui, Guoping Lei, Shuai Ye\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Understanding the relationship between climate change and cropland spatiotemporal patterns is critical for developing government policy and assisting agriculture in adapting to future climate change. The land use dataset was used to extract the area of cropland expansion and contraction as well as to calculate the cropland landscape indices. The impacts of climatic factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of cropland were quantified for different time periods by Random Forest (RF) classification and regression models, and the accuracy of the models was used as the intensity of the influence of climatic factors on cropland change. The results revealed that the total cropland area has consistently increased by 17.74% in the last four decades. The Sanjiang Plain (SJP) and Songnen Plain (SNP), with high aggregation and a simple shape of cropland landscapes, were the main regions where the cropland area has increased. Cropland landscape aggregation was low in mountainous areas. Before 2000, the total cropland area expanded more (46,748 km<sup>2</sup>) in response to the pressure to ensure food security, whereas there was less cropland loss. The accuracy of the RF model during this period revealed that the changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns were highly influenced by climatic factors. After 2000, the climate conditions gradually became warmer and wetter. The total area of cropland increased slightly (10,587 km<sup>2</sup>) under the influence of the contradictory relationships among economic development, food production and ecological conservation, and the conversion between cropland and natural landscape types was drastic. The impact of climatic factors on changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns has declined. Our results suggest that the response of spatiotemporal pattern changes in cropland to climatic factors differs under different policy contexts in different periods. The findings are intended to aid in the balance of agricultural production and ecological conservation in Northeast China in the face of climate change.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":567,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Food Security\",\"volume\":\"15 5\",\"pages\":\"1197 - 1214\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Food Security\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Food Security","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Contrasting responses of spatiotemporal patterns of cropland to climate change in Northeast China
Understanding the relationship between climate change and cropland spatiotemporal patterns is critical for developing government policy and assisting agriculture in adapting to future climate change. The land use dataset was used to extract the area of cropland expansion and contraction as well as to calculate the cropland landscape indices. The impacts of climatic factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of cropland were quantified for different time periods by Random Forest (RF) classification and regression models, and the accuracy of the models was used as the intensity of the influence of climatic factors on cropland change. The results revealed that the total cropland area has consistently increased by 17.74% in the last four decades. The Sanjiang Plain (SJP) and Songnen Plain (SNP), with high aggregation and a simple shape of cropland landscapes, were the main regions where the cropland area has increased. Cropland landscape aggregation was low in mountainous areas. Before 2000, the total cropland area expanded more (46,748 km2) in response to the pressure to ensure food security, whereas there was less cropland loss. The accuracy of the RF model during this period revealed that the changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns were highly influenced by climatic factors. After 2000, the climate conditions gradually became warmer and wetter. The total area of cropland increased slightly (10,587 km2) under the influence of the contradictory relationships among economic development, food production and ecological conservation, and the conversion between cropland and natural landscape types was drastic. The impact of climatic factors on changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns has declined. Our results suggest that the response of spatiotemporal pattern changes in cropland to climatic factors differs under different policy contexts in different periods. The findings are intended to aid in the balance of agricultural production and ecological conservation in Northeast China in the face of climate change.
期刊介绍：
Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches.
Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet.
From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas:
Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition
Global food potential and global food production
Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs:
§ Climate, climate variability, and climate change
§ Desertification and flooding
§ Natural disasters
§ Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production
§ Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production
The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption.
Nutrition, food quality and food safety.
Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs:
§ Land, agricultural and food policy
§ International relations and trade
§ Access to food
§ Financial policy
§ Wars and ethnic unrest
Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.
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