基于蝴蝶结技术和贝叶斯网络的氢气泄漏动态风险分析

IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
H. Borgheipour, G. M. Tehrani, T. Eskandari, O. C. Mohammadieh, I. Mohammadfam
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引用次数: 12

摘要

每个国家的发电厂都可以被认为是该国经济发展和增长的最重要因素之一。发电厂发生的事故非常危险,使人们难以接近。因此,能够预测和适当评估相关风险是至关重要的。本研究以氯化装置氢气泄漏为研究情境,评估事故潜在风险。然后运用蝴蝶结技术和贝叶斯网络分析确定了灾难性事故的类型和有效原因之间的关系。根据贝叶斯网络,将储罐通风系统流量下降确定为最可能发生的基础事件,将爆发火灾/突发性火灾/爆炸确定为最可能发生的顶部事件的后果。利用贝叶斯网络可以通过概率更新来降低参数的不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Dynamic risk analysis of hydrogen gas leakage using Bow-tie technique and Bayesian network

Dynamic risk analysis of hydrogen gas leakage using Bow-tie technique and Bayesian network

The power plants of each country can be considered as one of the most important factors in economic development and growth of that country. Accidents at power plants are very dangerous and make their accessibility difficult. So, it is critical to be able to predict and appropriately assess the relevant risks. In this study, we focus on hydrogen gas leakage from chlorination unit as the study scenario to evaluate potential risk of accidents. We then use the Bow-tie technique and Bayesian Network analysis to determine the type and the relationship between the effective causes of the catastrophic accidents. According to Bayesian Network, decrease in flow rate in the ventilation system of the storage tank was identified as the most probable base event, and erupted fire/sudden fire/explosion were identified as the most probable consequences of occurrence of the top event. The use of Bayesian network could reduce parameter uncertainty through probability updating.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
6.50%
发文量
806
审稿时长
10.8 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology (IJEST) is an international scholarly refereed research journal which aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental science and technology, innovation, engineering and management. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes: peer reviewed original research articles, case and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science and technology, both natural and man made. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not exclusive to; environmental chemistry and biology, environments pollution control and abatement technology, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and soil, point and non-point sources pollution, heavy metals and organic compounds in the environment, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, solid and hazardous waste management; soil biodegradation and bioremediation of contaminated sites; environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.
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