Christos Thomadakis, Loukia Meligkotsidou, Constantin T Yiannoutsos, Giota Touloumi
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Joint modeling of longitudinal and competing-risk data using cumulative incidence functions for the failure submodels accounting for potential failure cause misclassification through double sampling.
Most of the literature on joint modeling of longitudinal and competing-risk data is based on cause-specific hazards, although modeling of the cumulative incidence function (CIF) is an easier and more direct approach to evaluate the prognosis of an event. We propose a flexible class of shared parameter models to jointly model a normally distributed marker over time and multiple causes of failure using CIFs for the survival submodels, with CIFs depending on the "true" marker value over time (i.e., removing the measurement error). The generalized odds rate transformation is applied, thus a proportional subdistribution hazards model is a special case. The requirement that the all-cause CIF should be bounded by 1 is formally considered. The proposed models are extended to account for potential failure cause misclassification, where the true failure causes are available in a small random sample of individuals. We also provide a multistate representation of the whole population by defining mutually exclusive states based on the marker values and the competing risks. Based solely on the assumed joint model, we derive fully Bayesian posterior samples for state occupation and transition probabilities. The proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study and, as an illustration, it is fitted to real data from people with HIV.
期刊介绍:
Among the important scientific developments of the 20th century is the explosive growth in statistical reasoning and methods for application to studies of human health. Examples include developments in likelihood methods for inference, epidemiologic statistics, clinical trials, survival analysis, and statistical genetics. Substantive problems in public health and biomedical research have fueled the development of statistical methods, which in turn have improved our ability to draw valid inferences from data. The objective of Biostatistics is to advance statistical science and its application to problems of human health and disease, with the ultimate goal of advancing the public''s health.