美国短期暴露于空气污染与死亡率:双阴性对照分析。

Rongqi Abbie Liu, Yaguang Wei, Xinye Qiu, Anna Kosheleva, Joel D Schwartz
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引用次数: 4

摘要

理由:研究短期空气污染暴露与每日死亡之间关系的研究通常仅限于城市,使用的是全市平均暴露量,很少使用因果模型。目的:利用人口普查区或地址暴露(包括农村地区),采用双阴性对照分析,估计美国多个州短期暴露于细颗粒物(PM2.5)、臭氧(O3)和二氧化氮(NO2)与全因和病因特异性死亡率之间的关系。方法:我们进行了一项时间分层的病例交叉研究,调查了2000-2015年美国7个州的全部人口,其中超过300万例非意外死亡。PM2.5、O3和NO2在1x1公里网格单元的每日预测与基于人口普查轨迹或居住地址的死亡率有关。对于每种污染物,我们使用条件逻辑回归来量化暴露与以气象变量、其他污染物为条件的相对死亡风险之间的关联,并使用双阴性控制。结果:在滞后0 ~ 2天的移动平均时间内,PM2.5暴露量每增加10 μg/m3与全因死亡率增加0.67% (95%CI: 0.34 ~ 1.01%)显著相关。滞后期0-2天NO2或O3暴露增加10 ppb分别与和的相关性为0.19% (95% ci: -0.01 ~ 0.38%)和0.20 (95% CI-0.01, 0.40)。当污染水平被限制在目前的全球空气污染标准以下时,PM2.5的不利影响仍然存在。负控制模型表明,忽略PM2.5混杂因素的可能性很小,而这些气体的结果则好坏参半。PM2.5还与呼吸系统死亡率和心血管死亡率显著相关。结论:短期暴露于PM2.5以及可能的O3和NO2与全因死亡风险增加有关。我们的研究结果提供的证据表明,死亡风险持续低于目前允许的水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Short term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the US: a double negative control analysis.

Short term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the US: a double negative control analysis.

Short term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the US: a double negative control analysis.

Short term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the US: a double negative control analysis.

Rationale: Studies examining the association of short-term air pollution exposure and daily deaths have typically been limited to cities and used citywide average exposures, with few using causal models.

Objectives: To estimate the associations between short-term exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in multiple US states using census tract or address exposure and including rural areas, using a double negative control analysis.

Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study examining the entire population of seven US states from 2000-2015, with over 3 million non-accidental deaths. Daily predictions of PM2.5, O3, and NO2 at 1x1 km grid cells were linked to mortality based on census track or residential address. For each pollutant, we used conditional logistic regression to quantify the association between exposure and the relative risk of mortality conditioning on meteorological variables, other pollutants, and using double negative controls.

Results: A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at the moving average of lag 0-2 day was significantly associated with a 0.67% (95%CI: 0.34-1.01%) increase in all-cause mortality. 10 ppb increases in NO2 or O3 exposure at lag 0-2 day were marginally associated with and 0.19% (95%CI: -0.01-0.38%) and 0.20 (95% CI-0.01, 0.40), respectively. The adverse effects of PM2.5 persisted when pollution levels were restricted to below the current global air pollution standards. Negative control models indicated little likelihood of omitted confounders for PM2.5, and mixed results for the gases. PM2.5 was also significantly associated with respiratory mortality and cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions: Short-term exposure to PM2.5 and possibly O3 and NO2 are associated with increased risks for all-cause mortality. Our findings delivered evidence that risks of death persisted at levels below currently permissible.

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