COVID-19感染传播和人员流动

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Masahiko Shibamoto , Shoka Hayaki , Yoshitaka Ogisu
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引用次数: 4

摘要

考虑到现实世界的感染传播场景存在许多不确定性,预测和模拟可能与现实不同,本研究探索了更现实地描述感染情况所必需的因素。它为人类流动可以加速COVID-19感染的传播及其在同时关系下的周期性这一论点提供了三种方法。首先,该研究提出了一个动态模型,包括感染-流动性权衡和流动性需求,其中人类流动性的增加可能导致感染爆发,反过来,通过抑制流动性可以使新感染的增加成为暂时的。其次,利用日本的时间序列数据,为新感染病例的随机趋势和周期提供了经验证据。第三,运用宏观计量经济学来确定模型预测的可行性。因此,从2020年3月至2021年5月,COVID-19感染源在日本的传播随时间变化显著,新感染病例趋势和周期的每次变化解释了各自变化的一半左右。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility

COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility

COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility

COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility

Given that real-world infection-spread scenarios pose many uncertainties, and predictions and simulations may differ from reality, this study explores factors essential for more realistically describing an infection situation. It furnishes three approaches to the argument that human mobility can create an acceleration of the spread of COVID-19 infection and its cyclicality under the simultaneous relationship. First, the study presents a dynamic model comprising the infection–mobility trade-off and mobility demand, where an increase in human mobility can cause infection explosion and where, conversely, an increase in new infections can be made temporary by suppressing mobility. Second, using time-series data for Japan, it presents empirical evidence for a stochastic trend and cycle in new infection cases. Third, it employs macroeconometrics to ascertain the feasibility of our model’s predictions. Accordingly, from March 2020 to May 2021, the sources of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan varied significantly over time, and each change in the trend and cycle of new infection cases explained approximately half the respective variation.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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