犀牛和风险评估:调整风险评估方法以考虑“不可预见”的事件。

Q3 Medicine

Journal of business continuity & emergency planning Pub Date : 2021-01-01

Jo Robertson

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引用次数: 0

摘要

将COVID-19大流行描述为“黑天鹅”(即没有人预见到的灾难性事件)是错误的。更贴切的说法是“灰犀牛”——世界各国领导人早就预测到了这一点，但却忽视了这一点。本文认为，现在是时候停止依赖过时的风险公式，调整风险评估方法，以考虑这些灰犀牛。简单地说，现在是时候接受一个事实，即事件的潜在影响比其发生的可能性更重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

本刊更多论文

Rhinos and risk assessments: Adjusting risk assessment methodologies to account for 'unforeseeable' events.

It is wrong to describe the COVID-19 pandemic as a 'black swan' (ie a catastrophic event that no one saw coming). Far more apt would be to call it a 'grey rhino' - something that has long been predicted but overlooked by leadership the world over. This paper argues that it is time to stop relying on outdated risk formulas and adjust risk assessment methodologies to account for these grey rhinos. Simply put, it is time to accept that the potential impact of an event is more important than its likelihood.

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来源期刊

Journal of business continuity & emergency planning Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning is the leading professional journal publishing peer-reviewed articles and case studies written by and for business continuity and emergency managers.