埃博拉病毒病的传播动态与疫苗、避孕套的使用、检疫、隔离和治疗药物有关。

Q4 Medicine
African Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2020-12-14 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.21010/ajid.v15i1.2
Ahman Queeneth Ojoma, Omale Davidb, Asogwa Christopher Chukwumad, Nnaji Daniel Ugochukwue, Mbah Godwin Christopher Ezikek
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引用次数: 3

摘要

背景:埃博拉病毒病(EVD)给人类,特别是西非种族带来了经济生产力和人类生命等诸多领域的巨大损失。在2014年埃博拉病毒爆发期间,该疾病摧毁并威胁了整个世界。埃博拉病毒病的症状(发烧、腹泻、呕吐等)可能在感染后2至21天内出现。那些从疾病中恢复过来的人再次变得易感,并且可以通过精液传播病毒,因为研究表明即使在康复后精液中也存在病毒。材料与方法:将疫苗、避孕套的使用、检疫、隔离和治疗药物结合起来作为控制措施,在人与动物组成的人群中进行数学建模。建立了EVD控制的非线性微分方程模型系统,利用下一代矩阵法获得了模型的有效繁殖数(RE),并将其用于模型的稳定性分析。采用中心流形定理对模型进行分岔分析。结果:模型的稳定性分析表明,当RE > 1时,EVD - Free平衡是局部渐近稳定的,当RE > 1时,EVD -地方病平衡是局部渐近稳定的。该模型显示出正向分岔。结论:数值模拟和模型分析表明,采用疫苗接种、避孕套使用、检疫隔离和治疗药物控制等措施,可在短时间内有效控制和根除EVD。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE WITH VACCINE, CONDOM USE, QUARANTINE, ISOLATION AND TREATMENT DRUG.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE WITH VACCINE, CONDOM USE, QUARANTINE, ISOLATION AND TREATMENT DRUG.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE WITH VACCINE, CONDOM USE, QUARANTINE, ISOLATION AND TREATMENT DRUG.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE WITH VACCINE, CONDOM USE, QUARANTINE, ISOLATION AND TREATMENT DRUG.

Background: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has brought the human population, especially the West African race, great losses in so many areas such as economic productivity and human life. During the 2014 Ebola Virus outbreak, the disease devastated and threatened the whole world. EVD symptoms (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, etc) may appear anywhere between two to twenty-one days after infection. Those that recovered from the disease return to being susceptible again and can transmit the virus through semen as research has shown the virus presence in semen even after recovery.

Material and methods: Mathematical modeling method with the combination of vaccine, condom use, quarantine, isolation and treatment drug together as control measures in a population consisting of human and animals. A model system of non-linear differential equations for the control of EVD was formulated and the model effective reproduction number (RE ) was obtained using the next generation matrix method and used in the stability analysis of the model. Center manifold theorem was used in the bifurcation analysis of the model.

Results: The result shows that the stability analysis of the model shows that the EVD - Free Equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when RE > 1 and EVD - Endemic Equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when RE > 1. The model was shown to exhibit a forward bifurcation.

Conclusions: Numerical simulations and analysis of the model show that EVD could be effectively controlled and eradicated within a short period of time when vaccine, condom use, quarantine, isolation and treatment drug control measures are implemented together.

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来源期刊
African Journal of Infectious Diseases
African Journal of Infectious Diseases Medicine-Infectious Diseases
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
32
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