{"title":"利比亚出现COVID-19疫情。","authors":"Amin Bredan, Omran Bakoush","doi":"10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14-20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":49910,"journal":{"name":"Libyan Journal of Medicine","volume":"16 1","pages":"1871798"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798","citationCount":"13","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"COVID-19 epidemic in Libya.\",\"authors\":\"Amin Bredan, Omran Bakoush\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14-20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49910,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Libyan Journal of Medicine\",\"volume\":\"16 1\",\"pages\":\"1871798\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798\",\"citationCount\":\"13\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Libyan Journal of Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Libyan Journal of Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14-20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.
期刊介绍：
Libyan Journal of Medicine (LJM) is a peer-reviewed, Open Access, international medical journal aiming to promote heath and health education by publishing high-quality medical research in the different disciplines of medicine.
LJM was founded in 2006 by a group of enthusiastic Libyan medical scientists who looked at the contribution of Libyan publications to the international medical literature and saw that a publication outlet was missing. To fill this gap they launched LJM as a tool for transferring current medical knowledge to and from colleagues in developing countries, particularly African countries, as well as internationally.The journal is still led by a group of Libyan physicians inside and outside Libya, but it also enjoys support and recognition from the international medical community.
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