Ivan Zimmermann, Mauro Sanchez, Jonas Brant, Domingos Alves
{"title":"巴西联邦区COVID-19重症监护住院人数预测:社会距离措施影响分析","authors":"Ivan Zimmermann, Mauro Sanchez, Jonas Brant, Domingos Alves","doi":"10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":520611,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil","volume":" ","pages":"e2020361"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures.\",\"authors\":\"Ivan Zimmermann, Mauro Sanchez, Jonas Brant, Domingos Alves\",\"doi\":\"10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":520611,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"e2020361\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2020/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2020/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures.
Objective: To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.
Methods: Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.
Results: The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.
Conclusion: The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
