利用指数平滑法预测乌克兰COVID-19发病率。

Q3 Medicine
Nina Malysh, Alla Podavalenko, Olga Kuzmenko, Svitlana Kolomiets
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)是一种高度传染性的病毒性疾病。SARS-CoV-2病毒是在2019年12月中国武汉呼吸道疾病疫情调查期间首次发现的。2020年3月11日,世界卫生组织已经将COVID-19列为全球大流行。在乌克兰,COVID-19疫情形势依然严峻。本研究的目的是利用指数平滑方法建立乌克兰COVID-19发病率的数学预测模型。本文分析2019年2月29日至2021年10月1日COVID-19基本发病率报告。为了确定表征COVID-19流行过程的统计指标的预测水平,采用指数平滑法。预计2019年2月29日至2021年10月1日,新冠肺炎疫情将趋于稳定。“活跃病人”的指标将在每10万人159.04至353.63之间。“住院病人”指标可达15.43,“死亡人数”指标可达1.87。使用基于时间序列模型的指数平滑方法对COVID-19发病率动态建模,可以制定和实施科学合理的方法,以便预防,快速为医疗机构做好住院准备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using the method of exponential smoothing.
Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of "active patients" will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of "hospitalized patients" can reach 15.43 and "fatalities" ‒ 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.
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来源期刊
Folia medica Cracoviensia
Folia medica Cracoviensia Medicine-Medicine (all)
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
29
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