Hemorrhagic Transformation (HT) and Symptomatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage (sICH) Risk Prediction Models for Postthrombolytic Hemorrhage in the Stroke Belt.

Background: Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) remains the most feared complication of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA) treatment. We aimed to investigate how previously validated scoring methodologies would perform in treated patients in two US Stroke Belt states.

Methods and results: We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients from two centers in two Stroke Belt states who received IV tPA (2008-2011). We assessed the ability of three models to predict sICH. sICH was defined as a type 2 parenchymal hemorrhage with deterioration in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of ≥4 points or death. Among 457 IV tPA-treated patients, 19 (4.2%) had sICH (mean age 68, 26.3% Black, 63.2% female). The Cucchiara model was most predictive of sICH in the entire cohort (AUC: 0.6528) and most predictive of sICH among Blacks (OR = 6.03, 95% CI 1.07-34.1, P = 0.0422) when patients were dichotomized by score.

Conclusions: In our small sample from the racially heterogeneous US Stroke Belt, the Cucchiara model outperformed the other models at predicting sICH. While predictive models should not be used to justify nontreatment with thrombolytics, those interested in understanding contributors to sICH may choose to use the Cucchiara model until a Stroke Belt model is developed for this region.