对米兰可卡因使用情况的估计。

Sara Zuzzi, Carla Rossi, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba
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引用次数: 2

摘要

对意大利米兰可卡因使用情况的三种不同估计方法进行了比较分析,包括对基本参考人口的规模和趋势进行了分析。这三项可卡因使用估计数来自废水分析、一次“街头”调查和对持有毒品的行政处罚的单一来源捕获-再捕获分析。这三个数据来源都跨越了2000年至2010年这十年间的几年。对于每种方法,讨论了假设和局限性。结论是,尽管2000-2010年期间米兰可卡因使用的数据量相当大,但没有一个估计数是完全可靠的,这主要是因为需要对整个社区进行推断的许多假设,但所有三个估计数都一致认为,2007年至2010年期间可卡因使用和使用者大幅减少。最近开发的废水分析技术得出的估计值与基于街道的调查得出的估计值相当,而对执法机构鉴别可卡因使用者的行政数据进行的捕获-再捕获分析可能只针对所有使用者中的一小部分人。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimates of cocaine use in Milan.

A comparative analysis of three different estimation methods of cocaine use in Milan, Italy, is carried out, including an analysis of the size and trends of the underlying reference population. The three cocaine use estimates are derived from wastewater analysis, a "street" survey and one-source capture-recapture analysis of administrative sanctions for drug possession. All three data sources span several years during the decade 2000-2010. For each method, assumptions and limitations are discussed. It is concluded, although the amount of data regarding cocaine use in Milan during the years 2000-2010 is considerable, that none of the estimates is completely reliable, mainly because of the many assumptions needed for inference to the whole community, that all three estimates however agree on a substantial reduction in cocaine use and users between the years 2007 and 2010. The recently developed wastewater analysis technique yields estimates comparable to those derived from the street based survey, while capture-recapture analysis of administrative data on identification by law enforcement agencies as cocaine user probably targets only a subpopulation of all users.

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