{"title":"截至2015年，爱尔兰食管癌、胃癌和胰腺癌的死亡率预测。","authors":"P O'Lorcain, S Deady, H Comber","doi":"10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background and aim of the study: </strong>An analysis was undertaken to predict numbers of esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer deaths and their World age standardized mortality rates (WASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY-1) in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to 1950-2002 Irish cancer mortality data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>By 2015, esophageal cancer WASMR for males is expected to rise to 9.1 100,000 PY-1, but for females to fall to 2.3 100,000 PY-1. In women under 65 yr, the WASMR is expected to decline to 0.8 100,000 PY-1 but to increase to 3.6 100,000 PY-1 in men. The stomach cancer WASMR for males is predicted to decrease to 5.3 100,000 PY-1 and for females to 2.9 100,000 PY-1. In males under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to fall to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to 1.0 100,000 PY-1 in women. The male WASMR for pancreatic cancer is predicted to decrease to 5.9 100,000 PY-1 and to 4.7 100,000 PY-1 in women. In men under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to drop to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to fall in women to 1.2 100,000 PY-1.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Apart from male esophageal cancer, the findings would indicate that declines in Irish WASMRs for these three cancer types are expected to occur by 2015.</p>","PeriodicalId":84927,"journal":{"name":"International journal of gastrointestinal cancer","volume":"37 1","pages":"15-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mortality predictions for esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer, Ireland, up to 2015.\",\"authors\":\"P O'Lorcain, S Deady, H Comber\",\"doi\":\"10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background and aim of the study: </strong>An analysis was undertaken to predict numbers of esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer deaths and their World age standardized mortality rates (WASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY-1) in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to 1950-2002 Irish cancer mortality data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>By 2015, esophageal cancer WASMR for males is expected to rise to 9.1 100,000 PY-1, but for females to fall to 2.3 100,000 PY-1. In women under 65 yr, the WASMR is expected to decline to 0.8 100,000 PY-1 but to increase to 3.6 100,000 PY-1 in men. The stomach cancer WASMR for males is predicted to decrease to 5.3 100,000 PY-1 and for females to 2.9 100,000 PY-1. In males under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to fall to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to 1.0 100,000 PY-1 in women. The male WASMR for pancreatic cancer is predicted to decrease to 5.9 100,000 PY-1 and to 4.7 100,000 PY-1 in women. In men under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to drop to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to fall in women to 1.2 100,000 PY-1.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Apart from male esophageal cancer, the findings would indicate that declines in Irish WASMRs for these three cancer types are expected to occur by 2015.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":84927,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of gastrointestinal cancer\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"15-25\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2006-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of gastrointestinal cancer\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of gastrointestinal cancer","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1385/IJGC:37:1:15","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mortality predictions for esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer, Ireland, up to 2015.
Background and aim of the study: An analysis was undertaken to predict numbers of esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer deaths and their World age standardized mortality rates (WASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY-1) in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.
Methods: Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to 1950-2002 Irish cancer mortality data.
Results: By 2015, esophageal cancer WASMR for males is expected to rise to 9.1 100,000 PY-1, but for females to fall to 2.3 100,000 PY-1. In women under 65 yr, the WASMR is expected to decline to 0.8 100,000 PY-1 but to increase to 3.6 100,000 PY-1 in men. The stomach cancer WASMR for males is predicted to decrease to 5.3 100,000 PY-1 and for females to 2.9 100,000 PY-1. In males under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to fall to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to 1.0 100,000 PY-1 in women. The male WASMR for pancreatic cancer is predicted to decrease to 5.9 100,000 PY-1 and to 4.7 100,000 PY-1 in women. In men under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to drop to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to fall in women to 1.2 100,000 PY-1.
Conclusions: Apart from male esophageal cancer, the findings would indicate that declines in Irish WASMRs for these three cancer types are expected to occur by 2015.
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