Impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 cases and mortalities in major cities of Pakistan

Introduction

Climate factors play an important role in the transmission of viruses, such as influenza viruses, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-1. This study aimed to determine the relationship between changes in temperature, humidity, rainfall, and SARS-CoV-2 contagion. Five ecologically and climatically distinct regions were considered—Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Method

Data on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were retrieved from government officials, while meteorological information was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department.. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20 and the Spearman rank correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors and COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Result

Positive correlation of COVID-19 incidence was observed with all the temperature ranges (maximum, minimum and average) and negative correlation was seen with humidity, DTR and rainfall. COVID-19 deaths were positively associated with temperature and were negatively associated only with humidity. Linear regression showed that for every unit increase in humidity, there was a −3.345 daily significant decrease in COVID-19 cases, while in Karachi for every unit increase in humidity, there remained a 10.104 daily significant increase in cases. In Gilgit-Baltistan, for every unit increase in average temperature and rainfall respectively, significant increases of 0.534 and 1.286 in daily cases were found.

Conclusion

This study signifies the effect of climate factors on COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate, but climate factors are not the only variable and several other interlinked factors enhance the spread of COVID-19. Hence, effective mitigation policies, enhancing testing capacities, and developing public attitudes toward adopting precautionary measures are important to overcome this overwhelming pandemic.