临床实验室检测对早期预测COVID-19患者死亡率的价值:BGM评分。

Q3 Medicine
Journal of Circulating Biomarkers Pub Date : 2021-02-08 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.33393/jcb.2021.2194
Laura Macias-Muñoz, Robin Wijngaard, Bernardino González-de la Presa, José Luis Bedini, Manuel Morales-Ruiz, Wladimiro Jiménez
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引用次数: 5

摘要

背景:COVID-19死亡率高,住院时间长。这项研究的目的是寻找新的早期预后策略,可访问的大多数卫生保健中心。方法:收集500例SARS-CoV-2感染阳性患者的实验室结果、人口学和临床资料。将数据集分成训练集和测试集,以死亡的发生为响应变量,生成不同的多变量模型。最后的计算方法称为BGM评分,是通过结合前面的模型得到的,并可作为一个交互式web应用程序。结果:年龄、肌酐(CREA)、d -二聚体(DD)、c反应蛋白(CRP)、血小板计数(PLT)、肌钙蛋白I (TNI)组成的logistic回归模型灵敏度为47.3%,特异性为98.7%,kappa为0.56,平衡准确率为0.73。CART分类树得出TNI、年龄、DD和CRP是最有效的死亡率早期预测因子(敏感性= 68.4%,特异性= 92.5%,kappa = 0.61,平衡准确性= 0.80)。包括年龄、CREA、DD、CRP、PLT和TNI在内的人工神经网络的敏感性为66.7%,特异性为92.3%,kappa为0.54,平衡准确性为0.79。最后,BGM评分超过了独立多元模型的预测精度表现,敏感性为73.7%,特异性为96.5%,kappa为0.74,平衡精度为0.85。结论:BGM评分可以支持临床医生管理COVID-19患者,并为死亡风险增加的患者提供重点干预措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Value of clinical laboratory test for early prediction of mortality in patients with COVID-19: the BGM score.

Value of clinical laboratory test for early prediction of mortality in patients with COVID-19: the BGM score.

Value of clinical laboratory test for early prediction of mortality in patients with COVID-19: the BGM score.

Value of clinical laboratory test for early prediction of mortality in patients with COVID-19: the BGM score.

Background: COVID-19 causes high mortality and long hospitalization periods. The aim of this study was to search for new early prognostic strategies accessible to most health care centers.

Methods: Laboratory results, demographic and clinical data from 500 patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in our study. The data set was split into training and test set prior to generating different multivariate models considering the occurrence of death as the response variable. A final computational method called the BGM score was obtained by combining the previous models and is available as an interactive web application.

Results: The logistic regression model comprising age, creatinine (CREA), D-dimer (DD), C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count (PLT), and troponin I (TNI) showed a sensitivity of 47.3%, a specificity of 98.7%, a kappa of 0.56, and a balanced accuracy of 0.73. The CART classification tree yielded TNI, age, DD, and CRP as the most potent early predictors of mortality (sensitivity = 68.4%, specificity = 92.5%, kappa = 0.61, and balanced accuracy = 0.80). The artificial neural network including age, CREA, DD, CRP, PLT, and TNI yielded a sensitivity of 66.7%, a specificity of 92.3%, a kappa of 0.54, and a balanced accuracy of 0.79. Finally, the BGM score surpassed the prediction accuracy performance of the independent multivariate models, yielding a sensitivity of 73.7%, a specificity of 96.5%, a kappa of 0.74, and a balanced accuracy of 0.85.

Conclusions: The BGM score may support clinicians in managing COVID-19 patients and providing focused interventions to those with an increased risk of mortality.

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来源期刊
Journal of Circulating Biomarkers
Journal of Circulating Biomarkers Medicine-Biochemistry (medical)
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Circulating Biomarkers is an international, peer-reviewed, open access scientific journal focusing on all aspects of the rapidly growing field of circulating blood-based biomarkers and diagnostics using circulating protein and lipid markers, circulating tumor cells (CTC), circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and extracellular vesicles, including exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes and apoptotic bodies. The journal publishes high-impact articles that deal with all fields related to circulating biomarkers and diagnostics, ranging from basic science to translational and clinical applications. Papers from a wide variety of disciplines are welcome; interdisciplinary studies are especially suitable for this journal. Included within the scope are a broad array of specialties including (but not limited to) cancer, immunology, neurology, metabolic diseases, cardiovascular medicine, regenerative medicine, nosology, physiology, pathology, technological applications in diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccine, drug delivery, regenerative medicine, drug development and clinical trials. The journal also hosts reviews, perspectives and news on specific topics.
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