Aleksandar Zdravković, Jovan Zubović, Boban Nedeljković
{"title":"塞尔维亚加热烟草制品：税收差异、相对价格和消费税传递。","authors":"Aleksandar Zdravković, Jovan Zubović, Boban Nedeljković","doi":"10.18332/tid/231126","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Heated tobacco products (HTPs) have become a rapidly growing segment of the tobacco market in Serbia. This study examines the evolution of HTP prices, taxation, and relative market positioning in Serbia following their entry into the market.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A secondary data analysis was conducted using administrative and publicly available market data from Serbia. Monthly retail price and excise series covered Q3 2018 - Q1 2025, while aggregate tobacco sales data covered 2018-2023. Descriptive analysis was combined with first-difference panel regression models to estimate the pass-through effect, defined as the extent to which changes in HTP and cigarette excise taxes were reflected in HTP retail prices.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>HTPs accounted for approximately 2.5% of estimated tobacco packs sold in 2019 and 6.25% in 2023. While HTP prices moved closer to the medium cigarette segment, real HTP prices in 2023-2024 were lower than in 2018 and the excise burden on HTPs remained much lower than on cigarettes. The excise share of the leading HTP brand reached 13.4% in 2024, compared with 61.4% for the leading cigarette brand. The estimated direct pass-through coefficient for HTP excise changes was 0.26 (95% CI: -0.07-0.59). The point estimate was below full pass-through, but the confidence interval included zero. By contrast, cigarette excise changes were positively associated with HTP price changes (0.99; 95% CI: 0.61-1.36).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In Serbia, HTP market expansion has taken place under a tax regime in which the effective tax burden on HTPs remains substantially lower than that on cigarettes. The estimated pass-through effects suggest that the industry may have absorbed part of recent HTP excise increases, although this finding should be interpreted cautiously given the observational design of the study and limited identifying variation. Overall, the results point to the relevance of considering closer alignment between HTP and cigarette taxation within tobacco tax policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"24 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2026-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13640022/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Heated tobacco products in Serbia: Tax differentials, relative prices, and excise tax pass-through.\",\"authors\":\"Aleksandar Zdravković, Jovan Zubović, Boban Nedeljković\",\"doi\":\"10.18332/tid/231126\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Heated tobacco products (HTPs) have become a rapidly growing segment of the tobacco market in Serbia. This study examines the evolution of HTP prices, taxation, and relative market positioning in Serbia following their entry into the market.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A secondary data analysis was conducted using administrative and publicly available market data from Serbia. Monthly retail price and excise series covered Q3 2018 - Q1 2025, while aggregate tobacco sales data covered 2018-2023. Descriptive analysis was combined with first-difference panel regression models to estimate the pass-through effect, defined as the extent to which changes in HTP and cigarette excise taxes were reflected in HTP retail prices.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>HTPs accounted for approximately 2.5% of estimated tobacco packs sold in 2019 and 6.25% in 2023. While HTP prices moved closer to the medium cigarette segment, real HTP prices in 2023-2024 were lower than in 2018 and the excise burden on HTPs remained much lower than on cigarettes. The excise share of the leading HTP brand reached 13.4% in 2024, compared with 61.4% for the leading cigarette brand. The estimated direct pass-through coefficient for HTP excise changes was 0.26 (95% CI: -0.07-0.59). The point estimate was below full pass-through, but the confidence interval included zero. By contrast, cigarette excise changes were positively associated with HTP price changes (0.99; 95% CI: 0.61-1.36).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In Serbia, HTP market expansion has taken place under a tax regime in which the effective tax burden on HTPs remains substantially lower than that on cigarettes. The estimated pass-through effects suggest that the industry may have absorbed part of recent HTP excise increases, although this finding should be interpreted cautiously given the observational design of the study and limited identifying variation. 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Heated tobacco products in Serbia: Tax differentials, relative prices, and excise tax pass-through.
Introduction: Heated tobacco products (HTPs) have become a rapidly growing segment of the tobacco market in Serbia. This study examines the evolution of HTP prices, taxation, and relative market positioning in Serbia following their entry into the market.
Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using administrative and publicly available market data from Serbia. Monthly retail price and excise series covered Q3 2018 - Q1 2025, while aggregate tobacco sales data covered 2018-2023. Descriptive analysis was combined with first-difference panel regression models to estimate the pass-through effect, defined as the extent to which changes in HTP and cigarette excise taxes were reflected in HTP retail prices.
Results: HTPs accounted for approximately 2.5% of estimated tobacco packs sold in 2019 and 6.25% in 2023. While HTP prices moved closer to the medium cigarette segment, real HTP prices in 2023-2024 were lower than in 2018 and the excise burden on HTPs remained much lower than on cigarettes. The excise share of the leading HTP brand reached 13.4% in 2024, compared with 61.4% for the leading cigarette brand. The estimated direct pass-through coefficient for HTP excise changes was 0.26 (95% CI: -0.07-0.59). The point estimate was below full pass-through, but the confidence interval included zero. By contrast, cigarette excise changes were positively associated with HTP price changes (0.99; 95% CI: 0.61-1.36).
Conclusions: In Serbia, HTP market expansion has taken place under a tax regime in which the effective tax burden on HTPs remains substantially lower than that on cigarettes. The estimated pass-through effects suggest that the industry may have absorbed part of recent HTP excise increases, although this finding should be interpreted cautiously given the observational design of the study and limited identifying variation. Overall, the results point to the relevance of considering closer alignment between HTP and cigarette taxation within tobacco tax policy.
期刊介绍：
Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community.
The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.
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