Muhammad Haseeb Ullah, Jun Zhu, Wen-Jie Yan, Aliya Fazal, Zhen-Xin Liu, GuLiZaEr KuErBan, Farheen Zafar, Xu Yue
{"title":"2015-2019年跨境生物质燃烧对中国南方春季PM2.5人群暴露的影响","authors":"Muhammad Haseeb Ullah, Jun Zhu, Wen-Jie Yan, Aliya Fazal, Zhen-Xin Liu, GuLiZaEr KuErBan, Farheen Zafar, Xu Yue","doi":"10.1016/j.envpol.2026.129081","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Every spring (March-April), biomass-burning fires in the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) send smoke downwind into southern China, coinciding with elevated springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. The radiative and ecological effects of this transport are established, but its springtime population-exposure burden remains poorly characterised.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To quantify springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> population exposure under WHO and Chinese benchmarks, and attribute the ICP fire contribution with a controlled model experiment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> from 51 cities was combined with WorldPop population data to compute exposure above the WHO 2021 guideline (24-h, 15 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) and China's GB 3095-2012 Grade II standard (75 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) for March-April 2015-2019, and paired GEOS-Chem simulations at 2° × 2.5° with and without ICP fire attributed the fire contribution.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>At observed PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, exposure above the WHO 24-h guideline was near-universal (the population-weighted share of exceedance days reached 78 to 96% every year). Exposure above the higher China Grade II standard was rare in all three provinces, with the population-weighted share of exceedance days spanning 1 to 6% in Yunnan, 1 to 6% in Guangxi, and 0 to 5% in Guangdong; in absolute terms this corresponds to an average daily exposed population of about 6 million across the corridor, under 3% of its residents, with Guangdong's larger population offsetting its lower exceedance fraction. A controlled GEOS-Chem experiment with and without ICP fire attributed 25% (9.6 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) of Yunnan's springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> to ICP burning, 6% (3.3 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) in Guangxi and 4% (1.6 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) in Guangdong, a monotonic west-to-east gradient paralleled by ozone (10%, 5%, 2%). Translating this attribution into exposure, ICP fire carried an estimated average daily population of 2.2-2.6 million above the China PM<sub>2.5</sub> standard (36-44% of all above-standard exposure), and about 11 million above the WHO ozone guideline.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The model-attributed ICP-fire contribution is largest in Yunnan and attenuates eastward, while national-standard exceedance remains episodic across the corridor; this pattern supports province-specific, transport-aware air-quality assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":311,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Pollution","volume":" ","pages":"129081"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2000,"publicationDate":"2026-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Transboundary biomass-burning influence on springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> population exposure across southern China during 2015-2019.\",\"authors\":\"Muhammad Haseeb Ullah, Jun Zhu, Wen-Jie Yan, Aliya Fazal, Zhen-Xin Liu, GuLiZaEr KuErBan, Farheen Zafar, Xu Yue\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.envpol.2026.129081\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Every spring (March-April), biomass-burning fires in the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) send smoke downwind into southern China, coinciding with elevated springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. The radiative and ecological effects of this transport are established, but its springtime population-exposure burden remains poorly characterised.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To quantify springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> population exposure under WHO and Chinese benchmarks, and attribute the ICP fire contribution with a controlled model experiment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> from 51 cities was combined with WorldPop population data to compute exposure above the WHO 2021 guideline (24-h, 15 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) and China's GB 3095-2012 Grade II standard (75 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) for March-April 2015-2019, and paired GEOS-Chem simulations at 2° × 2.5° with and without ICP fire attributed the fire contribution.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>At observed PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, exposure above the WHO 24-h guideline was near-universal (the population-weighted share of exceedance days reached 78 to 96% every year). Exposure above the higher China Grade II standard was rare in all three provinces, with the population-weighted share of exceedance days spanning 1 to 6% in Yunnan, 1 to 6% in Guangxi, and 0 to 5% in Guangdong; in absolute terms this corresponds to an average daily exposed population of about 6 million across the corridor, under 3% of its residents, with Guangdong's larger population offsetting its lower exceedance fraction. A controlled GEOS-Chem experiment with and without ICP fire attributed 25% (9.6 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) of Yunnan's springtime PM<sub>2.5</sub> to ICP burning, 6% (3.3 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) in Guangxi and 4% (1.6 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) in Guangdong, a monotonic west-to-east gradient paralleled by ozone (10%, 5%, 2%). Translating this attribution into exposure, ICP fire carried an estimated average daily population of 2.2-2.6 million above the China PM<sub>2.5</sub> standard (36-44% of all above-standard exposure), and about 11 million above the WHO ozone guideline.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The model-attributed ICP-fire contribution is largest in Yunnan and attenuates eastward, while national-standard exceedance remains episodic across the corridor; this pattern supports province-specific, transport-aware air-quality assessment.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":311,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Pollution\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"129081\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2026-11-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Pollution\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.129081\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2026/9/4 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Pollution","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.129081","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/9/4 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Transboundary biomass-burning influence on springtime PM2.5 population exposure across southern China during 2015-2019.
Background: Every spring (March-April), biomass-burning fires in the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) send smoke downwind into southern China, coinciding with elevated springtime PM2.5 in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. The radiative and ecological effects of this transport are established, but its springtime population-exposure burden remains poorly characterised.
Objective: To quantify springtime PM2.5 population exposure under WHO and Chinese benchmarks, and attribute the ICP fire contribution with a controlled model experiment.
Methods: Daily PM2.5 from 51 cities was combined with WorldPop population data to compute exposure above the WHO 2021 guideline (24-h, 15 μg/m3) and China's GB 3095-2012 Grade II standard (75 μg/m3) for March-April 2015-2019, and paired GEOS-Chem simulations at 2° × 2.5° with and without ICP fire attributed the fire contribution.
Results: At observed PM2.5 concentrations, exposure above the WHO 24-h guideline was near-universal (the population-weighted share of exceedance days reached 78 to 96% every year). Exposure above the higher China Grade II standard was rare in all three provinces, with the population-weighted share of exceedance days spanning 1 to 6% in Yunnan, 1 to 6% in Guangxi, and 0 to 5% in Guangdong; in absolute terms this corresponds to an average daily exposed population of about 6 million across the corridor, under 3% of its residents, with Guangdong's larger population offsetting its lower exceedance fraction. A controlled GEOS-Chem experiment with and without ICP fire attributed 25% (9.6 μg/m3) of Yunnan's springtime PM2.5 to ICP burning, 6% (3.3 μg/m3) in Guangxi and 4% (1.6 μg/m3) in Guangdong, a monotonic west-to-east gradient paralleled by ozone (10%, 5%, 2%). Translating this attribution into exposure, ICP fire carried an estimated average daily population of 2.2-2.6 million above the China PM2.5 standard (36-44% of all above-standard exposure), and about 11 million above the WHO ozone guideline.
Conclusions: The model-attributed ICP-fire contribution is largest in Yunnan and attenuates eastward, while national-standard exceedance remains episodic across the corridor; this pattern supports province-specific, transport-aware air-quality assessment.
期刊介绍：
Environmental Pollution is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high-quality research papers and review articles covering all aspects of environmental pollution and its impacts on ecosystems and human health.
Subject areas include, but are not limited to:
• Sources and occurrences of pollutants that are clearly defined and measured in environmental compartments, food and food-related items, and human bodies;
• Interlinks between contaminant exposure and biological, ecological, and human health effects, including those of climate change;
• Contaminants of emerging concerns (including but not limited to antibiotic resistant microorganisms or genes, microplastics/nanoplastics, electronic wastes, light, and noise) and/or their biological, ecological, or human health effects;
• Laboratory and field studies on the remediation/mitigation of environmental pollution via new techniques and with clear links to biological, ecological, or human health effects;
• Modeling of pollution processes, patterns, or trends that is of clear environmental and/or human health interest;
• New techniques that measure and examine environmental occurrences, transport, behavior, and effects of pollutants within the environment or the laboratory, provided that they can be clearly used to address problems within regional or global environmental compartments.
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