From prediction to action: Using observable spatial constraints to redefine land capability for drought adaptation in arid regions

This study investigates the effectiveness of land use planning as a spatial adaptation strategy to enhance climate change resilience in the Sistan Plain, Iran. We applied the Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) model to assess land suitability for agriculture, ecotourism, and residential areas under two distinct scenarios: normal conditions (intrinsic suitability) and drought-consequence constraints (integrated with climate change impacts). Abandoned agricultural areas, dust-storm corridors, and desiccated wetlands were considered as indicators of drought effects. The results quantify a dramatic spatial impact: agricultural suitability, which covers over 70% of the Sistan Plain under normal conditions, collapses to less than 10% under drought-consequence constraints. Ecotourism potential, while quantitatively similar between the two scenarios (30% vs. 20%), undergoes a qualitative shift from water-dependent sites to sustainable desert ecotourism centers. Residential suitability also drops from 45% to 10% of the study area, highlighting the need for highly centralized development focused on resilient zones. Given the impact of dust storms on the suitability of the Sistan Plain, taking urgent action for soil stabilization is essential. This study demonstrates that utilizing the spatial legacy of climate change impacts within MCE provides a necessary and immediate action plan for guiding resource reallocation and protecting communities in severely stressed arid environments.