Potential Public Health and Economic Impact of the Next-Generation COVID-19 Vaccine mRNA-1283 in The Netherlands.

Background: COVID-19 remains a substantial public health challenge in the Netherlands. Next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1283, is approved in the European Union, with potential for higher relative vaccine efficacy compared with originally licensed COVID-19 vaccines.

Methods: The potential public health and economic impact of mRNA-1283 in adults ≥ 60 years and high-risk adults aged 18-59 years was modeled versus no vaccination and originally licensed mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, adapting a published static Markov model with a 1-year time horizon. COVID-19 burden reflected two full post-pandemic seasons. Vaccine efficacy versus mRNA-1273 was based on pivotal phase 3 NextCOVE trial data; efficacy versus BNT162b2 was derived from an indirect treatment comparison. The economically justifiable price (EJP) of mRNA-1283 versus no vaccination and price premiums over existing vaccines were determined at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

Results: Without COVID-19 vaccination, an estimated 460,000 infections, 23,800 hospitalizations, and 5300 deaths would occur. With current coverage, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent 68,000 infections, 5400 hospitalizations, and 1200 deaths, saving 9667 QALYs and over €66.5 million in treatment costs. The EJP was €238 versus no vaccination. Compared with mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent additional burden (e.g., 1309 and 1679 hospitalizations, respectively) and was cost-effective at an incremental EJP of €62 versus mRNA-1273 and €80 versus BNT162b2.

Conclusions: The results support continued COVID-19 vaccination to mitigate the ongoing health and societal burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands. The comparative analyses indicate that mRNA-1283 may be associated with substantial health benefits over originally licensed mRNA vaccines; consequently, its use may further improve health outcomes and economic efficiency within COVID-19 vaccination programs.