Must One Imagine Sisyphus Happy? An Archetypal Risk Scenario Approach to the Administrative Unification of a Public School of Engineering

This study investigates institutional risks and resilience in the administrative unification of a Brazilian public engineering school, a context marked by complex organizational change in the absence of formal risk governance. Employing a qualitative action-research design, this study integrates PESTEL analysis with a novel archetypal diagnostic framework. Drawing on foresight methods, it examines deep structural and cultural tensions. Four archetypal scenarios—Kafka, Sisyphus, Zombie, and Confucius—are used as structured analytical narratives that synthesize recurrent internal configurations through which the institution responds to environmental pressures and institutional uncertainty. The key findings reveal a central institutional tension between emergent sociocultural resilience, grounded in collaboration and the mediating role of local leadership, and persistent vulnerabilities linked to administrative discontinuity, budget instability, and technological obsolescence. Questionnaire data triangulated and validated the qualitative analysis, confirming strong consensus on centralization and resource scarcity as key perceived risks, while indicating divergent assessments regarding governance arrangements. The study concludes that this integrated framework offers a practical diagnostic approach for public managers, supporting institutional reflection and adaptive capacity by rendering systemic risks and cultural patterns visible, open to discussion, and actionable.