Leonor Guariguata, Sarah Nayani, Sarah Croes, Masja Schmidt, Lydia Gisle, Pieter Vynckier, Nick Verhaeghe, Robby De Pauw, Brecht Devleesschauwer
{"title":"1997年至2040年比利时吸烟的过去趋势、未来预测和社会人口模式。","authors":"Leonor Guariguata, Sarah Nayani, Sarah Croes, Masja Schmidt, Lydia Gisle, Pieter Vynckier, Nick Verhaeghe, Robby De Pauw, Brecht Devleesschauwer","doi":"10.1186/s12963-026-00464-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cigarette smoking is a major contributor to disability and premature death worldwide. Given the impact of smoking on population health, it is important to understand trends and socio-demographic patterns that can be most informative to public health planning. The objectives of this study are to establish a time series of cigarette smoking in Belgium, forecast future smoking prevalence, and examine socio-demographic patterns in smoking.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using six waves of the Belgian Health Interview Survey (1997-2018), we modelled smoking prevalence and forecast trends to 2040 with a Bayesian generalized linear model incorporating population projections by age, sex, region, and educational attainment to capture demographic shifts over time.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Based on modelled estimates anchored on BHIS data from 1997 to 2018, smoking prevalence in Belgium declined from 29.6% (95% CI: 25.0-34.6%) in 1997 to 17.2% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5%) in 2025. Model projections indicate a further decrease to 12.9% (95% CI: 7.3-22.4%) by 2040. In 2025, men are estimated to smoke at about 1.4 times the rate of women-20.2% (95% CI: 14.9-27.6%) versus 14.2% (95% CI: 10.2-19.6%)-a gap expected to narrow but persist by 2040 (14.5%, 95% CI: 8.4-25.6% vs. 11.2%, 95% CI: 6.3-19.3%). Across regions, the steepest decline is projected in Flanders (from 28.5% to 11.4%), followed by Brussels-Capital (31.1% to 13.3%) and Wallonia (31.0% to 15.5%), which is expected to remain the highest. Socioeconomic inequalities also persist: by 2040, smoking prevalence is projected to range from 19.0% (95% CI: 12.2-36.2%) among those with lower secondary education to 7.5% (95% CI: 4.7-13.1%) among those with more than secondary education.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Smoking prevalence in Belgium is declining and is projected to continue this downward trend. However, persistent inequalities by sex, educational attainment, and age may result in uneven health benefits across the population. Addressing these disparities through targeted tobacco control measures will be crucial to ensuring equitable health gains for all.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13107576/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Past trends, future forecasts and socio-demographic patterns of cigarette smoking in Belgium, 1997 to 2040.\",\"authors\":\"Leonor Guariguata, Sarah Nayani, Sarah Croes, Masja Schmidt, Lydia Gisle, Pieter Vynckier, Nick Verhaeghe, Robby De Pauw, Brecht Devleesschauwer\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12963-026-00464-7\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cigarette smoking is a major contributor to disability and premature death worldwide. Given the impact of smoking on population health, it is important to understand trends and socio-demographic patterns that can be most informative to public health planning. The objectives of this study are to establish a time series of cigarette smoking in Belgium, forecast future smoking prevalence, and examine socio-demographic patterns in smoking.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using six waves of the Belgian Health Interview Survey (1997-2018), we modelled smoking prevalence and forecast trends to 2040 with a Bayesian generalized linear model incorporating population projections by age, sex, region, and educational attainment to capture demographic shifts over time.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Based on modelled estimates anchored on BHIS data from 1997 to 2018, smoking prevalence in Belgium declined from 29.6% (95% CI: 25.0-34.6%) in 1997 to 17.2% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5%) in 2025. Model projections indicate a further decrease to 12.9% (95% CI: 7.3-22.4%) by 2040. In 2025, men are estimated to smoke at about 1.4 times the rate of women-20.2% (95% CI: 14.9-27.6%) versus 14.2% (95% CI: 10.2-19.6%)-a gap expected to narrow but persist by 2040 (14.5%, 95% CI: 8.4-25.6% vs. 11.2%, 95% CI: 6.3-19.3%). Across regions, the steepest decline is projected in Flanders (from 28.5% to 11.4%), followed by Brussels-Capital (31.1% to 13.3%) and Wallonia (31.0% to 15.5%), which is expected to remain the highest. Socioeconomic inequalities also persist: by 2040, smoking prevalence is projected to range from 19.0% (95% CI: 12.2-36.2%) among those with lower secondary education to 7.5% (95% CI: 4.7-13.1%) among those with more than secondary education.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Smoking prevalence in Belgium is declining and is projected to continue this downward trend. However, persistent inequalities by sex, educational attainment, and age may result in uneven health benefits across the population. 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Past trends, future forecasts and socio-demographic patterns of cigarette smoking in Belgium, 1997 to 2040.
Background: Cigarette smoking is a major contributor to disability and premature death worldwide. Given the impact of smoking on population health, it is important to understand trends and socio-demographic patterns that can be most informative to public health planning. The objectives of this study are to establish a time series of cigarette smoking in Belgium, forecast future smoking prevalence, and examine socio-demographic patterns in smoking.
Methods: Using six waves of the Belgian Health Interview Survey (1997-2018), we modelled smoking prevalence and forecast trends to 2040 with a Bayesian generalized linear model incorporating population projections by age, sex, region, and educational attainment to capture demographic shifts over time.
Results: Based on modelled estimates anchored on BHIS data from 1997 to 2018, smoking prevalence in Belgium declined from 29.6% (95% CI: 25.0-34.6%) in 1997 to 17.2% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5%) in 2025. Model projections indicate a further decrease to 12.9% (95% CI: 7.3-22.4%) by 2040. In 2025, men are estimated to smoke at about 1.4 times the rate of women-20.2% (95% CI: 14.9-27.6%) versus 14.2% (95% CI: 10.2-19.6%)-a gap expected to narrow but persist by 2040 (14.5%, 95% CI: 8.4-25.6% vs. 11.2%, 95% CI: 6.3-19.3%). Across regions, the steepest decline is projected in Flanders (from 28.5% to 11.4%), followed by Brussels-Capital (31.1% to 13.3%) and Wallonia (31.0% to 15.5%), which is expected to remain the highest. Socioeconomic inequalities also persist: by 2040, smoking prevalence is projected to range from 19.0% (95% CI: 12.2-36.2%) among those with lower secondary education to 7.5% (95% CI: 4.7-13.1%) among those with more than secondary education.
Conclusions: Smoking prevalence in Belgium is declining and is projected to continue this downward trend. However, persistent inequalities by sex, educational attainment, and age may result in uneven health benefits across the population. Addressing these disparities through targeted tobacco control measures will be crucial to ensuring equitable health gains for all.
期刊介绍：
Population Health Metrics aims to advance the science of population health assessment, and welcomes papers relating to concepts, methods, ethics, applications, and summary measures of population health. The journal provides a unique platform for population health researchers to share their findings with the global community. We seek research that addresses the communication of population health measures and policy implications to stakeholders; this includes papers related to burden estimation and risk assessment, and research addressing population health across the full range of development. Population Health Metrics covers a broad range of topics encompassing health state measurement and valuation, summary measures of population health, descriptive epidemiology at the population level, burden of disease and injury analysis, disease and risk factor modeling for populations, and comparative assessment of risks to health at the population level. The journal is also interested in how to use and communicate indicators of population health to reduce disease burden, and the approaches for translating from indicators of population health to health-advancing actions. As a cross-cutting topic of importance, we are particularly interested in inequalities in population health and their measurement.
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