Minerals at the margins and the new geopolitics of critical minerals

The new resource geopolitics is not solely a race against China; it is a test of foresight, adaptability, and the ability to invest in futures not yet fully visible across the full spectrum of ‘critical’ resources. While Western powers rush to counter China's dominance in mainstream critical minerals—such as rare earths, lithium, and cobalt—policy, research, and public attention tend to overlook minerals at the margins: materials recognized as critical and with emerging strategic importance that are already mined and refined largely within member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). These minerals, though peripheral today, have the potential to underpin the next generation of disruptive technologies. In this perspective, we outline a new resource geopolitics in which Western and OECD countries mobilize existing strengths to future-proof dependencies. The objective is not to downplay current vulnerabilities but to advance a more holistic understanding of criticality, one that looks beyond today's technological and defense imperatives. Complete decoupling is neither feasible nor desirable, and zero-sum competition offers little value in an era of planetary crisis. What is possible, however, is a rebalancing of dependencies through strategic foresight, diversification, and the cultivation of underrecognized advantages.