Human capital, unequal opportunities and productivity convergence: A global historical perspective, 1800–2100

This paper constructs a new database on public expenditure and revenue and their components, particularly education and health expenditure, covering all world regions over the 1800–2025 period. Human capital expenditure has grown substantially, but with large and persistent inequalities. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 at purchasing power parity, compared to 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950. Human capital expenditure strongly correlates with productivity growth, especially for public education and in poor countries. Estimated returns from our macro-historical database are around 10%, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on illustrative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025–2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100.