酒精消费的随机模型：稳定性和全球动态

IF 2.6 4区综合性期刊 Q3 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Kuwait Journal of Science Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI:10.1016/j.kjs.2026.100542

Sara Soulaimani , Fathalla A. Rihan , Abdelilah Kaddar

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文建立了一个随机数学模型来研究酒精消费的稳定性和全局动态。总体被划分为四个区室，用确定性微分方程描述过渡，并用随机扰动扩展以捕获随机变异性。稳定性分析使用李雅普诺夫函数，而基于部分秩相关系数（PRCC）的全局敏感性分析确定了驱动长期结果的关键参数。数值模拟验证了这一理论，显示了开始、复发和戒烟率如何影响系统弹性和干预策略的有效性。结果揭示了随机效应和有针对性的干预是如何决定饮酒行为趋势的。

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A stochastic model of alcohol consumption: Stability and global dynamics

This paper develops a stochastic mathematical model to study the stability and global dynamics of alcohol consumption. The population is divided into four compartments, with transitions described by deterministic differential equations and extended with stochastic perturbations to capture random variability. Stability is analyzed using Lyapunov functions, while a global sensitivity analysis based on partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) identifies key parameters driving long-term outcomes. Numerical simulations validate the theory, showing how initiation, relapse, and cessation rates shape system resilience and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. The results reveal how stochastic effects and targeted interventions determine drinking behavior trends.

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来源期刊

Kuwait Journal of Science MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

28.60%

发文量

132

期刊介绍： Kuwait Journal of Science (KJS) is indexed and abstracted by major publishing houses such as Chemical Abstract, Science Citation Index, Current contents, Mathematics Abstract, Micribiological Abstracts etc. KJS publishes peer-review articles in various fields of Science including Mathematics, Computer Science, Physics, Statistics, Biology, Chemistry and Earth & Environmental Sciences. In addition, it also aims to bring the results of scientific research carried out under a variety of intellectual traditions and organizations to the attention of specialized scholarly readership. As such, the publisher expects the submission of original manuscripts which contain analysis and solutions about important theoretical, empirical and normative issues.