历史上的军事冲突，当前的贸易紧张局势，以及全球供应链

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104221

Yichuan Hu , Chang Li , Shu Lin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了中美之间的两场重大冲突——朝鲜战争和当前的贸易战——如何影响全球供应链。使用手工收集的数据，我们发现，在主席的原籍城市中，朝鲜战争的死亡人数强烈影响着中国公司今天对美国供应商的选择。此外，当前的贸易紧张局势重新唤起了人们对战时创伤的记忆，大大放大了它们的负面影响。我们确定了推动这一变化的两个关键机制：中国报复性关税和中国媒体对朝鲜战争的报道增加。各种实证检验表明，我们的发现是因果关系，而不是美国供应商选择的结果。

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Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains

We study how two significant conflicts between China and the U.S.—the Korean War and the current trade war—affect global supply chains. Using hand-collected data, we find that the death toll from the Korean War in a chairperson's city of origin strongly influences Chinese firms' selection of U.S. suppliers today. Moreover, the current trade tensions reactivate memories of wartime trauma, significantly amplifying their negative effects. We identify two key mechanisms driving this change: Chinese retaliatory tariffs and increased media coverage of the Korean War within China. A variety of empirical tests suggest that our findings are causal and are not a result of U.S. suppliers' choice.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.