Revisiting the Last Mile: The development effects of a mass electrification program in Kenya

Access to electricity remains a central priority in development policy, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which accounts for over half of the global population without reliable power. This study examines the socio-economic impacts of Kenya’s Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP), a large-scale electrification initiative aimed at expanding grid access by connecting households and businesses within 600 meters of distribution transformers. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we evaluate the program’s effectiveness in increasing electricity access and its broader development outcomes. Our findings show that the LMCP significantly improved household connectivity, leading to a substantial shift from off-grid energy sources to grid electricity. While this transition resulted in modest yet positive economic effects, most notably, increased household consumption, there was no significant impact on employment, income, or women’s empowerment. These limited economic gains appear to stem from persistent challenges such as unreliable power supply and financial constraints that hinder productive electricity use. Interestingly, we find that the positive impact of LMCP on consumption is driven by households connected earlier, suggesting that the impact of the program might increase over time. While our results highlight the role of electrification in improving living conditions, they also suggest that access alone may not be sufficient to drive broader economic transformation, and benefits take time to accrue.