Assessing groundwater and climate susceptibility in Masgeredo-Bulal catchment, Ethiopia

Due to recurrent droughts and a lack of surface and groundwater resources, Southern Ethiopia's semi-arid region of the Borena zone faces a serious water shortage. This study addresses water scarcity in Southern Ethiopia's Borena zone, focusing on the Masgeredo-Bulal catchment, utilizing Geographical Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing, and climate modeling. This research combines multi-criteria groundwater assessment using eight thematic layers with future climate projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied in ArcGIS 10.8 to delineate groundwater potential zone (GWPZ), while Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa regional climate models were used to project future temperature and precipitation trends. The finding reveals that 51.6 % of the Masgeredo-Bulal catchment has good groundwater potential, 47.47 % is moderate, 0.69 % is very good, and 0.22 % is poor. The southern and southwestern regions exhibit superior potential compared to the north and east, with geology and rainfall identified as crucial factors. Under Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5 and 8.5, future climate projections show a logical increase in temperature and reduced precipitation compared to the baseline. Mean monthly precipitation is expected to decrease by 2.82 mm and 2.9 mm, while temperatures could rise by 22.9 °C and 23.19 °C, respectively. The combined groundwater–climate approach in this offers new insights for sustainable water management and climate adaptation strategies, providing vital information for policymakers and resource planners in the region. Further, research and development initiatives are recommended to enhance resilience and adaptability to climate change impacts on water availability in the region.