英国央行（Bank of England）本可以避免错误预测2021 - 2024年英国通胀吗？

IF 5.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

International Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.07.001

Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A. Doornik , David F. Hendry

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引用次数: 0

摘要

英国央行（Bank of England）严重错误地预测了英国消费者价格指数（cpi）从2021年开始迅速上升，促使本•伯南克（Ben Bernanke）重新审视。这提出了许多重要的问题，但其他关键问题没有得到解决，正如我们讨论的那样。不可预测的冲击解释了该行预测失败的部分原因，但反应迟缓也很重要。我们表明，连续的大且不断增加的同号一步预测误差包含了估计断裂趋势的信息，应用于预测英国2021-24年的通货膨胀。与英国央行（Bank of England）的预测相比，通过快速发现趋势突变并在突变发生时更新预测模型，预测业绩可以大幅提升。

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Could the Bank of England have avoided mis-forecasting UK inflation during 2021–24?

The Bank of England badly mis-forecast UK annual consumer price inflation as it rose rapidly from 2021, prompting a review by Ben Bernanke. This raised many important issues, but other crucial problems were not addressed, as we discuss. Unpredictable shocks explain some of the bank’s forecast failures, but tardy reactions also mattered. We show that successive large and increasing same-sign one-step-ahead forecast errors contain the information to estimate broken trends, applied to forecasting the UK’s inflation over 2021–24. Compared with Bank of England projections, substantial gains in forecast performance can be made by rapidly detecting trend breaks and updating forecasting models when they occur.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Forecasting Multiple-

CiteScore

17.10

自引率

11.40%

发文量

189

审稿时长

77 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.