谁更有可能购买电动汽车？美国中西部地区的描述性综合选择模型分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103877

Omid Armantalab , Hania Afzal , Jason Hawkins

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用显性偏好和显性偏好相结合的方法来分析美国中西部地区的汽车拥有量。我们应用综合选择和潜在变量（ICLV）模型来调查数据，包括当前车辆细节、未来车辆偏好和对既定选择任务的反应。通过比较这些方法，我们探讨了自由选择和结构化陈述选择任务之间的选择差异，并评估了潜在态度因素对个体选择差异的影响。我们的研究结果表明，提高对电动汽车（EV）属性的认识可以大大提高采用率。相反，对充电时间长的担忧是电动汽车采用的重大阻碍，而与环境效益相关的动机，如减少空气污染和温室气体（GHG）排放，是强有力的激励因素。弹性分析显示，电动汽车的选择对购买价格最为敏感，在价格变化1%的情况下，小型电动汽车的弹性为0.91%，大型电动汽车的弹性为1.11%，电动皮卡的弹性为0.80%。续驶里程表现出第二高的弹性，强调了可负担性和性能改进在促进美国中西部电动汽车采用方面的关键作用。

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Who is more likely to buy an EV? A descriptive and integrated choice model analysis in the US Midwest

This study uses a combined revealed and stated preference approach to analyze vehicle ownership in the US Midwest. We apply integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models to survey data that includes current vehicle details, future vehicle preferences, and responses to stated choice tasks. By comparing these approaches, we explore how choice varies between free selection and structured stated choice tasks, and assess the impact of latent attitudinal factors on individual choice variation. Our findings reveal that increasing awareness of electric vehicle (EV) attributes can substantially boost adoption rates. Conversely, concerns regarding long charging times are significant deterrents to EV adoption, while motivations related to environmental benefits, such as reduced air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, serve as strong incentives. Elasticity analysis reveals that the choice of electric vehicles is most sensitive to purchase price, with elasticities of 0.91% for small electric cars, 1.11% for large electric cars, and 0.80% for electric pickup trucks for a one percent change in price. Driving range exhibits the second-highest elasticity, underscoring the critical role of affordability and performance improvements in fostering EV adoption in the US Midwest.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.